Crypto Plummets, Why Next Rally May Takes As Long As November?
The crypto market is in a major rut due to macroeconomic conditions. The Federal Reserve is engaging in quantitative tightening to curb the soaring inflation. However, experts reveal why the months of November and beyond after the midterms can bring some relief to the crypto market.
Major stock market influencer and trader, @CanteringClark, shared data on Twitter, highlighting the performance of the stock market before and after the midterm elections. The US midterm elections will be held on the 8th of November, 2022.
How Midterms Affect Crypto Prices
According to data, the stock market generally performs poorly in the months leading up to the midterm elections. On the other hand, the stocks almost always skyrocket in the months following the elections. No matter the performance of the president’s party, the months after the election almost always outperform the months before.
According to Clark, this is especially true in the 1970s decade. Experts believe that the 70s decade had loosely similar macroeconomic conditions to the present day. In the 12 months leading up to the elections, the markets fell by 13% in 1966, 15% in 1970, and 32% in 1974. However, the market bounced back by 17%, 13%, and 20% respectively in the 12 months after the election.
According to Clark, the year 1974 has significant similarities to the current macroeconomic conditions. The inflation level hit 8.8% during the same period. As a result, the stock market fell close to 32%. However, the markets made a strong recovery of 20% after the election.
Clark notes that the current market behavior is on par with the other years in terms of total volume realized. Therefore, November and December will likely be good months for the market.
The crypto market is strongly correlated with the general market since 2020. Crypto assets behave similarly to tech stocks and the tech-oriented NASDAQ. Therefore, the months after the midterms may give something to cheer for the bulls.
Can The Fed Be An Obstacle
A survey by Bloomberg reveals that economists believe that the Fed will remain hawkish well into the year 2023. Therefore, the Fed’s quantitative tightening can ruin the historical trend this year.
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