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What Could be The Maximum Impact of Mt. Gox Creditors Selling Their Bitcoins?

Bitcoin price can tank a maximum of 10.5% from the current stage to $47,000-$48,000, as per analyst Alex Kruger's calculations, considering the MT Gox redistribution plan.
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What Could be The Maximum Impact of Mt. Gox Creditors Selling Their Bitcoins?

Highlights

  • Analyst Alex Kruger estimates 95,000 BTC will be released by Mt Gox within 90 days.
  • He predicts that 30% of these, combined with potential German government sales, could result in a maximum 10.5%.
  • Mt. Gox has begun its $9 billion repayment process to creditors in BTC and BCH.

Crypto exchange Mt. Gox has already started the long-awaited repayment process with the creditors receiving the payout in BTC and BCH. The $9 billion payout by Mt. Gox has already sent jitters across the crypto market with BTC price tanking all the way to $53,500 on Monday. Additionally, the German govt. Bitcoin sell-off has led to further woes.

While the market worries about the Bitcoin sell-off coming from Mt. Gox creditors, let’s take a look into the possible scenario with the selling.

Can the Market Absorb Mt. Gox Bitcoin Selling?

Popular market analyst Alex Kruger has explained what can happen from the macro perspective if Mt. Gox creditors liquidate their Bitcoins. As per Kruger, Mt. Gox has a total of 141,000 BTC to distribute, out of which 95,000 bitcoins would be released within the next 90 days to creditors who have opted for an early distribution along with a 10% haircut. Kruger provides a further breakdown of the 95,000 Bitcoin distribution as follows:

  • 20,000 BTC to credit funds.
  • 10,000 BTC to a New Zealand exchange currently in bankruptcy proceedings, meaning this portion won’t hit the market.
  • 65,000 BTC to individual creditors.

Based on these, Kruger has made a few assumptions as to what could be the market impact of this selling. The analyst predicts that 30% of the 85,000 BTC hitting the market would be available for selling i.e. 25,000 BTC.

Also Read: Bitstamp To Fast-Track Mt Gox BTC Repayments To Creditors 

Later, he considers that creditors would sell 30% in a single transaction instead of over time. furthermore, he also assumes that Germany might sell its remaining Bitcoin holding of 23,700 BTC in one single transaction.

Based on this, Kruger calculates that there could be a max 10.5% drop in the Bitcoin price from the current levels. Thus, we can see the Bitcoin price falling maximum within a range of $47,000-$48,000.

BTC Price Recovery

After falling to a low of $53,500, the Bitcoin price has staged a decent recovery and is currently trading 3.4% up at $57,330. This bounce back suggests that the temporary selling pressure on Bitcoin has subsided for the near term.

On the other hand, Bitcoin ETFs have continued to see strong demand during the recent correction with inflow on an upward trajectory.

Also Read: Can Bitcoin Hold Resistance Amid German Sales?

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Bhushan Akolkar

Bhushan is a seasoned crypto writer with over eight years of experience spanning more than 10,000 contributions across multiple platforms like CoinGape, CoinSpeaker, Bitcoinist, Crypto News Flash, and others. Being a Fintech enthusiast, he loves reporting across Crypto, Blockchain, DeFi, Global Macros with a keen understanding in financial markets. 

He is committed to continuous learning and stays motivated by sharing the knowledge he acquires. In his free time, Bhushan enjoys reading thriller fiction novels and occasionally explores his culinary skills. Bhushan has a bachelors degree in electronics engineering, however, his interest in finance and economics drives him to crypto and blockchain.

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