Why HODLing Bitcoin (BTC) Might Not Be The Best Strategy

Jason Shapiro, an expert trader and publisher of the Crowded Market Report, revealed that the stock market would not yield any long-term gains over the next decade. Shapiro also believes that the odds of a continued Bitcoin rally are very low.

Jason also reveals that the lows for crypto are not yet in and that crypto will decline significantly close to the September FOMC meeting.

According to him, any money-making opportunity would arise from identifying short-term price movements, rather than long-term holdings.

The Concept Of Contrarian Trading

Jason Shapiro is known for his contrarian trading. According to him, one of the best indicators for long-term price analysis is understanding the crowdedness of long and short positions on any stock. He believes that most of the time, the stock will move in the opposite direction of the common consensus. 

In the current market scenario, Jason believes that the kind of money in the stock market does not often lead to long-term growth. Citing the example of the Tokyo stock market Nikkei, Shapiro reveals that a lot of the time markets continue to operate in long-term losses. He believes that the US stock market will meet a similar fate.

Why A Bitcoin Rally Is Unlikely

Jason Shapiro revealed a series of charts that highlight that commercial traders are hedging Ethereum more than Bitcoin. According to him, it is not a good sign for a continued Bitcoin rally. He also revealed that while the number of people that were long on BTC at the top of the bull market has decreased, the majority of people are still long on BTC.

According to his principle of contrarian trading, he believes that holding BTC will not result in any long-term gain. 

Shapiro is also one of the many experts who believe that the Federal Reserve will not be able to pivot on a quick basis. Many also believe that the future inflation numbers will do little to ease the Quantitative Tightening policy by the Fed. If the September FOMC meeting results in another unusually large hike, it could be bad news for the crypto industry.