Will Bitcoin Recover As Usual In October?

Will Bitcoin repeat history and recover in October? Bitcoin (BTC) continued its phase of reduced volatility on Tuesday, leading to relatively insignificant price fluctuations. In the past 24 hours, the Bitcoin price experienced a slight drop of only 0.36%, and was trading at  $26,224 at the time of this report. 

October’s Promise for Bitcoin; Crypto Community Skeptical

Nonetheless, despite these challenges, notable figures within the cryptocurrency industry are expressing optimism about Bitcoin’s future. On Tuesday, Ted Talks Macro, a renowned cryptocurrency trader and podcaster shared a bullish outlook for BTC, emphasizing several factors that could drive the cryptocurrency’s price higher in the coming months.

In a tweet, he stated, “Bitcoin is entering a period of positive seasonality,” anchoring his arguments on historical data.

Over the past three years, October has consistently emerged as Bitcoin’s best-performing month, with this positive seasonality often extenslding into the first quarter of the following year, he noted.  However, according to the pundit the cryptocurrency landscape this year presents a unique set of challenges.

Before 2022, Bitcoin had never operated in an environment where interest rates exceeded 2%. Presently, the Federal Funds rate has surpassed 5%, and central banks worldwide are expected to maintain higher rates as they grapple with inflationary pressures. Ted Macro emphasized that this unprecedented interest rate landscape introduces an element of uncertainty, raising questions about whether Bitcoin’s traditional seasonal patterns will hold or if the cryptocurrency will chart a different course.

Macro’s sentiments find resonance with Rekt Capital, who also commented on Bitcoin’s potential in October 2023.  In his analysis, Rekt Capital expressed optimism for a resurgence reminiscent of October 2019, potentially resulting in a 10% increase. He suggested that such an upward movement could propel Bitcoin back toward the $29,200 level.

Adding to the discourse, “Moustache,” a crypto analyst, pointed out striking similarities between Bitcoin’s current trajectory and its 2013-2015 and 2018-2023 performance. Drawing parallels with the past and sharing the chart below, “Moustache” anticipates high volatility in October 2023, setting the stage for potentially significant price movements.

Is $30k A Possibility in October?

That said, while Bitcoin’s ongoing support at $25,000 is encouraging for crypto enthusiasts, there are notable challenges on the horizon. A significant hurdle facing Bitcoin is the formidable resistance at $29,500, coupled with a psychologically significant milestone at $30,000.

Credible crypto, one among renowned crypto analyst, today shared the short term scenario for BTC price. As per his charts, Bitcoin is yet to surpass key resistance and will continue to move sideways. He highlighted the $25k-$26 price range as a great opportunity to enter with high risk/reward ratio.

Throughout the year, the $30,000 resistance has demonstrated its resilience, consistently thwarting Bitcoin’s endeavors to reach higher price echelons. This challenge is compounded by observation that September historically been a bad month for Bitcoin.