Bitcoin Options Worth $5 Billion To Expire Today; What’s Next for BTC Price $40k Or $28k?

Bitcoin price is capitalizing on the recently improved market structure. At first, Bitcoin price defended support established at $30,000 after rallying from under $25,000 to a level slightly above $31,000. This encouraged investors to stay put in their positions, with confidence in the market building toward a possible breakout to $35,000 and $40,000, respectively.

Can Bitcoin Price Break $35k?

Bitcoin’s market structure had improved significantly compared to the beginning of June when the crypto industry faced an intensified crackdown by the US securities regulator. That situation was further worsened by remarks made by Fed Chair Jerome Powell when the reserve bank halted interest rate hikes while emphasizing possible future increments amid the battle to bring inflation to 2%.

With Bitcoin price trading slightly above $30,700, it means that bulls are ready to tackle resistance between $31,000 and its 12-month high of $31,468. This is the only hurdle barring BTC from closing the gap to $35,000.

Bolstering Bitcoin’s optimistic trajectory is the status of the Money Flow Index (MFI), which is currently in the overbought territory. This index monitors the inflow and outflow of funds from the Bitcoin markets. Given the prevailing influx of funds, it suggests that Bitcoin is optimally positioned for a price surge, potentially reaching not just $35,000 but even extending up to $40,000.

What’s Fueling Bitcoin Bull Run?

Subsequently, crypto fortunes started turning around with a surge in institutional interest in the market. Blackrock filed for a spot BTC ETF with the SEC, which experts believe has a 50% chance of receiving the coveted approval.

In the same month, Fidelity Investments launched a crypto exchange, EDX market, and has filed for a spot Bitcoin ETF. Several other Wall Street firms have also filed with the SEC to offer the spot exchange-traded product, including Cathie Wood.

The largest institutional Bitcoin holder, MicroStrategy, purchased approximately $347 million worth of the BTC mid-this week, which could have a positive ripple effect on the price as it closes the gap to $35,000.

Will Expiring Bitcoin Options Drag The BTC Price Down?

Approximately 159 BTC options worth around $4.8 billion will expire today. This will be the largest mass expiry in months, thanks to the increased investor interest in the derivatives market supported by the spike in ETF filings.

According to Greeks.live, a professional options traders’ arsenal, the options have “a Put/Call Ratio 0.56, a max pain point of $26,500.” This amounts to nearly twice as many call (long) contracts as puts (shorts).

🎊June 30 Options Data
📷159k BTC options are about to expire with a Put Call Ratio of 0.56, a max pain point of $26,500 and a notional value of $4.9 billion.
📷1.25m ETH options are about to expire, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.57, a max pain point of $1,700 and a notional… pic.twitter.com/aJFBUjEQtm

— Greeks.live (@GreeksLive) June 30, 2023

Notably, the “max pain point” denotes the price featuring the highest number of open contracts, and it’s also the price at which the greatest losses would occur upon contract expiration.

While anticipating future market dynamics, Adam Cochran, a partner at Cinneamhain Ventures, believes Bitcoin and the crypto market, in general, would experience some volatility.

“The max pain point on the BTC option expiry tomorrow is $26.5k?! Given how often crypto trends at least towards pain before expiry, it could be a choppy few days…,” Cochran said.

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