CLARITY Act Odds Slump as Bank Reps Review Stablecoin Yield Compromise Text

The odds of the CLARITY Act getting signed into law in 2026 dropped significantly on Wednesday. This happens as bank representatives review new legislative text regarding stablecoin yield compromise in the crypto market structure bill.

Crypto industry representatives reviewed the language in the CLARITY Act draft earlier this week. Some crypto leaders called the overall approach “restrictive,” impacting crypto platforms and users.

Banks Representatives’ Overall Stance on the CLARITY Act

The American Bankers Association and banks raised concerns about a large deposit flight driven by yields or interest on stablecoins. The current text is viewed as largely bank-friendly on the stablecoin yield ban provision, which is why the compromise moved negotiations forward.

Last week, Senators Thom Tillis and Angela Alsobrooks, with White House support, reached an agreement on the stablecoin yield issue that stalled the CLARITY Act in the Senate. The draft text prohibits passive yield or rewards for holding stablecoin balances, or anything “economically or functionally equivalent” to bank interest.

The new Clarity Act permits activity-based rewards tied to actual user activity such as payments, transfers, platform usage, loyalty programs, or liquidity provision. It also requires the SEC, CFTC, and Treasury to jointly define compliant rewards and issue anti-evasion rules within one year.

Comments from crypto industry leaders were mixed, with some supporting the compromise to advance the crypto bill for markup in mid-April. However, others warned that it could reduce revenue for crypto platforms, stating the approach as “restrictive.”

More clear comments are still awaited from bank representatives and the American Bankers Association. Banks’ acceptance will advance the CLARITY Act for full Senate consideration, providing regulatory clarity for crypto exchanges, brokers, dealers, and stablecoin issuers.

Crypto Market Prediction Markets Pull Back Amid Review

Following the initial review of new legislative language, Polymarket odds for the CLARITY Act being signed into law in 2026 dropped from 67% to 62%.

Moreover, Kalshi data showed a significant drop in the crypto market structure bill becoming law before July and August. Notably, the odds of passing and becoming law before August slump by almost 20%, from 66.6% to 46.2%.

Traders are also expecting a delay in the Clarity Act becoming law before 2027, with odds now tumbling to 58%. The modest slump reflects caution for the crypto market, which could derail upside momentum in Bitcoin and crypto stocks. The crypto market structure bill passing even matters more than Bitcoin price.

USDC issuer Circle stock crashed more than 20% to $101.17 after comments by crypto representatives. However, CRCL stock is trading up more than 3% in the premarket today.