After a relatively average week on the macro front, the upcoming week brings significant challenges for both stocks and crypto markets. Traders remain cautious ahead of major events that could impact the recent recovery in markets. Positive developments in the crypto market amid renewed interest from financial institutions caused Bitcoin (BTC) price to hit a yearly high of $31,400.
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Investors need to keep a close eye for fresh guidance from major events this week. Expect volatility this week amid GDP and inflation data releases, central banks officials’ speeches, and other macro events.
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde to give speeches at the 2023 ECB Forum on Central Banking on monetary policy and inflation challenges in the Euro area on Monday and Tuesday.
The US Treasury Dept to auction 3-month and 6-month treasury bills, as well as the 2-year treasury note.
ECB officials to give speeches during the 2023 ECB Forum on Central Banking for monetary policy outlook and taking efforts to bring inflation to its target.
New home sales data for May from the US Census Bureau, with market expectations of 670,000.
US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to give speeches on Wednesday and Thursday on monetary policy as the Fed kept the interest rate unchanged in June, but signaled hikes later this year. CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 72% probability of a 25 bps hike in July.
Also, the Federal Reserve to also release stress test results on Wednesday to gauge banks’ resilience.
The US Q1 GDP data will be a key release on Thursday as traders look for guidance on economic projections and which will impact investors’ sentiment.
Friday will be a key day for investors as the US PCE inflation, which serves as the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, is likely to show the price pressures eased slightly in May. The UK GDP will also help investors gauge the economic outlook amid a surprise 50 bps hike last week.
Also, there are weekly and monthly for crypto on Friday. Over 145k BTC options with a notional value of $4.5 billion are about to expire on Friday, June 30. The Put/Call Ratio is 0.52, with call open interests of 95k and put open interests of 49k. The max pain is at 25,000. The max pain point is the price at which the largest number of options holders face financial loss. Currently, the BTC price is trading near the $30,450 level.
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