Aptos Price Prediction: Pump or Dump With 25M APT Token Unlock Due?

A bloody crypto market has welcomed the new week with a 4.4% drop in the market cap to $1.64 trillion. The widespread headwinds slashed Aptos price by 4.5% to trade at $7.78 on Monday during US business hours. More declines could engulf APT, especially with the next token unlock happening on December 12.

Aptos Price Prediction Ahead of Token Unlock

Aptos is the highlight of token unlocks in December, with the network set to release 24.84 million APT tokens worth around $193.25 million. This unlock represents 8.95% of the circulating supply.

According to the token unlock schedule core contributors to the Aptos ecosystem are the biggest winners, with 11.88 million APT going to them. Investors have been allocated 8.42 million, the community will benefit from 3.21 million and lastly, the Aptos Foundation will receive 1.33 million.

Intriguingly, the previous Aptos token unlock took place on November 12, with the same number of APT entering the circulating supply. Aptos price plunged by 20% following the November token unlock, but APT had recovered marginally to trade at $7.78.

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According to crypto investor and analyst, @CryptoBusy, token unlocks can positively or negatively impact the price of the cryptocurrency. Increasing the circulating supply can potentially lower the price, especially if holders choose to sell.

“But unlocks allow builders, network participants, etc to access tokens. Ultimately adoption and utility drive long-term value,” the analysts said in a post on X.

🚨 WATCH OUT! More than $191M worth of $APT tokens will be unlocked! 🚨

A token unlock means previously locked tokens are newly available for trading.

This can increase token supply, potentially lowering price if holders decided to sell.

But unlocks allow builders, networks… pic.twitter.com/wsvpBjjtNB

— CryptoBusy (@CryptoBusy) December 11, 2023

From the daily time frame, Aptos price is facing growing selling pressure. The 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) (blue) at $7.59 currently keeps APT buoyant while its immediate upside has been capped by the seller congestion at $8.

Prior to the ongoing pullback, Aptos had broken out of an inverse head-and-shoulders, which is a highly bullish pattern. Although the pattern had validated, a low trading volume and the bearish wave going around the market, curtailed a potential 40% move.

Bulls have a rare opportunity to salvage the situation as long as they can reclaim the neckline resistance/support at $8.

However, if holders sell APT due to the token unlock on Tuesday as they did with the previous one, an immediate recovery would be a pipe dream.

Therefore, it might be prudent for traders to prepare for additional lower support areas, where they can dollar-cost average (DCA) into Aptos to make the most of the upcoming recovery.

In that case, the 50-day EMA (red) at $7.14 and the 200-day EMA (purple) at $6.95 would come in handy. If push comes to shove, Aptos price could slide back into the woods with support at $6 and $5 likely to be tested.

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