Bitcoin Price Analysis: Low Volume Retest Tease Further downfall in BTC

The One-Month consolidation in Bitcoin(BTC) price ended on a bearish note as sellers breached the $28000 on June 12th. Amid the Last week’s crypto crash, the coin price marked a new 2022 low at $17708. Doing so, the BTC price poked $20000 psychological support, suggesting further decline

Key points: 

• The BTC price lost 39% within a fortnight 
• The Onchain indicator MVRV- Z score indicates Bitcoin is undervalued
• The intraday trading volume in the Bitcoin is $44.8 Billion, indicating a 36% gain

MVRV-Z score Hints Bitcoin Nearing Bottom

Source-lookintobitcoin

The Onchain indicator MVRV- Z score uses the deviation between the assets’ market cap and realized cap to undermine whether it is overvalued or undervalued relative to its value.

A high volume(near the red zone) has historically determined the market top; conversely, the low value(blue) has the signal market bottom.

Thus, last week’s sell-off pushed the Z-score below the 0.22 mark(Blue zone), previously witnessed in 2020, 2018, 2015, and 2011, which also signaled the market bottom.

However, it’s worth noting the BTC price didn’t start rallying immediately after they visited this oversold region. Therefore, it’s safe to assume the coin price could slide lower or consolidate for a few more sessions before finding a bottom.

BTC/USDT daily Time Frame Chart

Source-Tradingview

From May 10th to June 11th, the Bitcoin(BTC) price consolidated above the $28000 support, as it took a pause from the April-May bloodbath. However, last week the crypto market experienced intense selling pressure, resulting in a $28000 fallout.

The resulting fall knocked out more support levels such as $24000 and just recently $20000. Today, the BTC price is up by 2% and retests the breached support. Furthermore, the low volume activity observed during the retest phase suggests price sustainability below $20000. 

If the selling pressure persists, the coin price may drop 27% lower to $14000 psychological support.

Conversely, if buyers push the BTC price above $20000, the traders can expect a minor relief till $24000 or $28000 resistance.

Technical indicator-

The daily-RSI slope dives deeper into the oversold region, indicating sellers continue strengthening their grip over the coin. This discounted price should eventually attract potential buyers to drive the price higher.

The rising ADX slope accentuates steady selling with no sign of weakness in bearish momentum.

• Resistance level- $20000, and $24000
• Support level- $18000 and $14000