US FOMC Meeting Highlights: The crypto market was up today, ahead of the much-awaited FOMC decision, which might set the stage for potential future moves in the crypto market. However, despite a positive momentum in the broader market, Bitcoin prices slipped over 1% and traded below the $43,000 mark.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 97.9% probability that the Federal Reserve to keep the interest rate unchanged. Notably, the speech of Fed Chair Jerome Powell will be closely watched by investors for clues on the potential moves by the central bank and the economic health of the nation.
US FOMC Meeting Highlights: The crypto market was up today, ahead of the much-awaited FOMC decision, which might set the stage for potential future moves in the crypto market. However, despite a positive momentum in the broader market, Bitcoin prices slipped over 1% and traded below the $43,000 mark.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 97.9% probability that the Federal Reserve to keep the interest rate unchanged. Notably, the speech of Fed Chair Jerome Powell will be closely watched by investors for clues on the potential moves by the central bank and the economic health of the nation.
Jeffrey Gundlach of DoubleLine Capital has predicted a delay in inflation reduction and a potential economic slowdown due to the Fed’s persistent high-rate policy. Post-Fed meeting, Gundlach highlighted June as the likely timing for the first rate cut, contrasting with market expectations. He anticipates the market’s earlier optimism may wane as inflation rates stall.
"For now we think there’s going to be a stall in the inflation rate coming down," says @DLineCap's Jeffrey Gundlach. "And that will probably mean that the market isn’t going to get the goldilocks picture that it was euphoric about a couple of weeks ago." pic.twitter.com/XMIEgAGif3
— CNBC's Closing Bell (@CNBCClosingBell) January 31, 2024
During the recent press conference, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the need for greater confidence in achieving a durable 2% inflation rate. Powell’s repeated focus on data dependency and resistance to a March rate cut sparked further questions about the Fed’s timing.
As he was pressed further, #FederalReserve Chair #Powell went back to repeating the mantra of "data dependency" and pushed back more explicitly against a March rate cut.
This is fueling more questions about the risks of the #Fed being late again, albeit in a different direction.… https://t.co/Nr2dvllrQs— Mohamed A. El-Erian (@elerianm) January 31, 2024
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has expressed uncertainty about sustained productivity growth post-pandemic. During a recent conference, Powell speculated that productivity might eventually return to pre-pandemic levels.
Chairman Jerome Powell on productivity growth… #FOMC pic.twitter.com/EW0HQSWtXO
— Stansberry Research (@Stansberry) January 31, 2024
Market expectations for a March rate cut by the Federal Reserve have dipped below 50% following the central bank’s recent statement. Traders now see a 45.8% chance of a reduction in the benchmark rate, a decline from earlier predictions. Moreover, Jerome Powell, during the post-meeting press conference, expressed doubts about the possibility of a rate cut by March, emphasizing the need for more confidence in achieving inflation goals.
The Federal Reserve is expected to strike the bias to raise rates again from its statement today but remain cagey about a March rate cut. We are still betting that the first cut is in May. The odds on a March cut are less than 50% but close to a flip of a coin. The inflation data…
— Diane Swonk (@DianeSwonk) January 31, 2024
Bitcoin’s price remained stable trading at $43,416, a 0.14% surge at press time following the Federal Reserve’s decision to maintain interest rates, reflecting a cautious market sentiment. Despite slight fluctuations, the cryptocurrency showed resilience amidst broader economic indicators and shifting interest rate expectations.
U.S. stocks fell after the Federal Reserve’s latest policy statement indicated a cautious approach to reducing interest rates, disappointing investors. The S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Dow Jones Industrial Average all saw declines, while the 10-year Treasury yield experienced a slight increase.
Fed disappoints the markets with its reluctance to hint at rate cuts soon. We are still in the camp that the first cut is likely in May. Let's see what the presser turns up.
— Kathy Jones (@KathyJones) January 31, 2024
Federal Reserve maintains interest rates at 5.4%, aligning with market predictions amid December’s 0.3% CPI increase as reported by Coingape. Investors now focus on Fed Chair Powell’s upcoming speech for hints on potential 2024 rate cuts.
The Federal Reserve’s latest policy statement indicates a shift in stance, as the word ‘any’ has been replaced with language emphasizing a ‘sufficiently restrictive’ policy rate. Additionally, the section addressing the banking system in previous statements has been notably omitted, signaling a change in focus towards stabilizing inflation and economic growth.
FOMC Policy Decision: below is a side by side comparison of the past two statements. I think the Jan'24 statement will feature removal of the phrase "any" & replaced with a phrase organized around the policy rate as "sufficiently restrictive." The second graf on the banking… pic.twitter.com/jCmeel5P2T
— Joseph Brusuelas (@joebrusuelas) January 31, 2024
Bitcoin revisits resistance territory, traders hesitant to short. The cryptocurrency repeatedly testing this level increases the chances of a breakthrough. However, the upcoming FOMC decision looms, adding uncertainty to market movements.
Back at resistance again #Bitcoin
I didn't short it yesterday, I won't short it now. The more often we hit the area the more likely we break through.
But also keep in mind we have FOMC in a couple of hours. pic.twitter.com/NCjdlbEWCb— Sam Mti (@MTI_Trading) January 31, 2024
Stock market struggles as FOMC Looms, investors turn to bonds. With the dollar weakening, markets see a shift towards safer bonds, adding pressure on stocks. Meanwhile, crypto shows resilience, breaking traditional market correlations.
Ahead of FOMC … stock market under massive pressure as money moving to safe haven of bonds… Dollar down..
crypto holding well and showing support. A lot of correlations broken at the moment. pic.twitter.com/et2vsKhCdk
— Wizard Of SoHo (🍷,🍷) (@wizardofsoho) January 31, 2024
Market anticipation high for FOMC meeting, focus on fed rate cuts. Investors seek clarity from Fed Chair Powell on the extent of rate cuts, with expectations ranging from three to five. Debate intensifies as inflation aligns with the Fed’s 2% target, yet aggressive cuts remain priced in.
A key question the market would like answered at todays #FOMC meeting is, 'what does the path of rate-cuts looks like?' The Fed indicated at the Dec meeting it was forecasting 3 cuts in 2024 but because inflation is now at Fed 2% target when using 6month indicator, the market has… pic.twitter.com/iGqF6rqGwe
— Brannigan Barrett (@Trader_Bran) January 31, 2024
Bitcoin trading within the defined lower time frames (LTF0 range, is likely to see continued fluctuation until the FOMC meeting later today.
Here's my current LTF range mapped out
Probably bounces around at these levels until FOMC later today pic.twitter.com/ElINRKVf2s
— Nebraskangooner (@Nebraskangooner) January 31, 2024
Gold aims to breach $2,050/oz as FOMC meeting looms, potentially sparking a rally post-decision. Yet, there’s also a chance of a downward move, testing the $2,000 mark again, as markets await the Fed’s bailout strategy announcement.
Happy #FOMC Day! Gold's Day to Shine?
Gold trying to take out $2,050/oz at the open with the FOMC meeting to decide when their next bailouts will start taking place.
Will the Fed ignite gold prices post decision today? Or is it a smackdown set-up to, or below, $2K again? pic.twitter.com/a2gQe8u93y
— Peter Spina ⚒ GoldSeek | SilverSeek (@goldseek) January 31, 2024
A noted crypto trader, Josh, observed a sharp decline in Ethereum at the $2400 resistance following a significant squeeze. Anticipating further declines, he maintains a short position on two undisclosed tokens amidst expectations of moderate volatility from the upcoming FOMC meeting, which he believes is already factored into the market.
After yesterday's squeeze we saw Ethereum reject heavily at the $2400 resistance after the major range deviation.
As long as price holds below this region I still favour more downside. Currently short two tokens but that's a crypto legends secret 🤫
We do have FOMC this… pic.twitter.com/dORPsZ0aSr
— Josh (@joshistrading) January 31, 2024
With today’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, traders braced for heightened volatility during the press conference. A new trendline has emerged, providing a potential trading strategy. For Bitcoin, maintaining above $42,000 on a daily close is crucial, as a drop below this level could signal negative trends.
Gm and happy Wednesday! ☕️
Bitcoin update + Hyblock Heatmaps
Today is FOMC – prepare for volatility during the press conference.
The trend is currently quite strong, and since the third touch, we now have a new trendline that you can use for trading.
But be cautious: avoid… pic.twitter.com/urdBQSZQjY
— Marco Johanning (@themarcojo) January 31, 2024
Gold experienced a sharp 4% sell-off the week following the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting but subsequently rallied to an all-time high of $2150. Now in its 11th week above the $2000 mark, the precious metal’s performance reflects market responses to FOMC outcomes and broader economic indicators.
#Gold immediately sold off 4% the week after I posted this…followed by a rally to ATH at 2150. Now into our 11th week above $2000. Happy #FOMC 😂😂😂 https://t.co/gOnDGoKLdU pic.twitter.com/QiN7oTO5lo
— Silverbark #fixourmoney #silversqueeze (@Silverbark3) January 31, 2024
The latest Q4 data indicates a cooling trend in the labor market, as evidenced by the Federal Reserve’s preferred metric, the employment-cost index. Wages and salaries for private sector workers, excluding incentive-based roles, have seen a slowdown, growing by 0.7% quarter-on-quarter and 4.3% year-on-year.
The employment-cost index is seen inside the Fed as the highest-quality measure of compensation growth.
Q4 data shows the labor market continued to cool.
Wages and salaries for private sector workers excluding incentive paid occupations, slowed in Q4
+0.7% QoQ
+4.3% YoY pic.twitter.com/rl2qs9XdIF— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) January 31, 2024
Gold prices are set to close January with a loss, ending a three-month rally, as investor expectations for early U.S. interest rate cuts diminish. The precious metal remained stable at $2,036.88 per ounce, despite declining 1.3% this month, with focus shifting to the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook later today. This shift in investor sentiment is reflected in the reduced probability of a March rate cut, now at 46%, down from 90% a month ago.
After Google and Microsoft surpassed their forecasted earnings per share, the NASDAQ’s trajectory hinges on the Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates today. Should the Fed opt against a hike, the NASDAQ could soar to new heights, presenting lucrative swing trading opportunities. However, there’s a keen watch on whether the NASDAQ will reverse to fill the current imbalance, signaling the rally might still have momentum.
Google and Microsoft both beat forecasted EPS yesterday so logically speaking if FED do not hike today NQ is ready to new high.
It will be interesting to see if NASDAQ will continue to sell off and if it will go back down to fill the imbalance.
Insane opportunity for some swing… pic.twitter.com/lqBjCjr5Nr
— DidZW | Chart Nomads (@_DidZW) January 31, 2024
As the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting approaches, the crypto market braces for potential volatility, with analysts predicting a sharp Bitcoin price correction. Sheldon The Sniper, a prominent crypto analyst, forecasts a 20-30% drop in Bitcoin value, citing weaknesses in the price chart and potential market reactions to the Fed’s decision. Ethereum also faces uncertainty, with prices expected to fluctuate based on the FOMC outcome and key resistance levels.
Bitcoin Open Interest is steadily increasing ahead of today’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, indicating potential market volatility. Traders anticipate significant price fluctuations with sharp movements in both directions during the event.
#Bitcoin Open Interest grinding up while we have FOMC later today.
Often means that people will get chopped up and as always we tend to see a decently sized wick towards both sides around the event. pic.twitter.com/kKaU2Apkjs
— Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto) January 31, 2024
FlameseN, a crypto analyst, recently emphasized Bitcoin’s resilience, maintaining the Mid-Range & 6h 200SMA. In addition, he warned of a potential lower range retest in case of a close below these levels. He noted that with today’s FOMC, heightened volatility is expected, especially for leveraged positions. Hence, traders are advised to monitor these critical levels for market stability.
Update #40: #Bitcoin Hyblock Heatmap Liquidation Levels.$BTC is still currently holding the Mid-Range & 6h 200SMA.
You wouldn’t want any closes below these levels or the likelihood of a lower range retest increases a lot.
Also FOMC is today, so watch out for volatility if… https://t.co/sKeP4gm3ze pic.twitter.com/ZD2qE9KTCx
— FlameseN アナリスト ₿ (@TraderFlameseN) January 31, 2024
In a recent post on X, RM Capital Consulting Founder Rashad Hajiyev observed gold’s breakout from a contracting triangle. However, he anticipates a possible sell-off to $2,000 – $2,010 before a genuine ascent. In addition, he noted that market volatility is expected due to the FOMC rate announcement compounded by the expiration of significant futures contracts yesterday.
#Gold broke out from a contracting triangle, but it may form another washout sell-off to $2,000 – 2,010 level before it takes of legitimately.
Tomorrow is FOMC rate announcement so it could be choppy and today Futures are expiring… pic.twitter.com/CF4yDExYEs— Rashad Hajiyev (@hajiyev_rashad) January 30, 2024
The FOMC meeting may conclude with a Fed rate pause today, according to market speculations. However, the Fed committee is considering to implement cuts soon, per reports.
Evai CEO Matthew Dixon expresses a cautious stance as the market seems to be in a state of anticipation before the impending interest rate decision. Dixon notes low volumes, describing the situation as “treading water” with the potential for explosive movements post-FOMC. He advises vigilance on risk-reward ratios for volatile assets like Bitcoin (BTC) and recommends holding back until market uncertainties settle to ensure strategic decision-making.
Market appears to be "treading water" ahead of the interest rate decision tomorrow. Volumes are low but could explode in either direction following #FOMC
Keep your risk reward tight for #BTC and other #volatile #Crypto assets – or keep your power dry until dust settles#Evai pic.twitter.com/It5qrknq7V— Matthew Dixon – CEO Evai (@mdtrade) January 30, 2024
The US dollar index rose above 103.5 to 103.64 on Wednesday, moving closer to seven-week highs as investors prepared for the Federal Reserve’s first monetary policy decision for this year. The Fed is set to keep interest rates steady, but the focus will be on hints about the timing of rate cuts this year.
Renowned investor Robert Kiyosaki underscores Bitcoin as a shield against wealth erosion caused by inflation, taxation, and stock price manipulation. He blamed figures such as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Yellin for ‘stealing’ people’s wealth. Kiyosaki asserts his preference for Bitcoin over traditional investments like stocks, bonds, and fiat currency, emphasizing its role in preserving wealth amidst economic uncertainties. Read More
Why I own Bitcoin. Bitcoin is protection against the theft of our wealth via our money. Fed Chairman Powell, Treasury Secretary Yellin, and Wall Street bankers steal our wealth via our money, specifically via inflation, taxation, & stock price manipulation. That is why I save…
— Robert Kiyosaki (@theRealKiyosaki) January 31, 2024
Investors are on high alert as the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates in January amid discussions about potential rate cuts. With the US economy exhibiting strength, the job market robust, and inflation below the Fed’s 2% goal, the central bank faces decisions on policy adjustments.
Meanwhile, analysts keenly await Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s post-meeting conference for signals on the timing of rate cuts, with March looming as a possibility. As economic data remains encouraging, the rationale for rate cuts is scrutinized, with concerns about rising inflation-adjusted interest rates gaining traction. The FOMC decision is set for Wednesday at 2 pm ET, followed by Chair Powell’s press conference at 2:30 pm ET.
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