SEC Commissioner Pushes Back on Crypto ETFs as XRP ETF Approval Odds Sink

U.S. SEC Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw has renewed her opposition to crypto exchange-traded products (ETPs). Her stance appears to have impacted market sentiment, with the approval odds for an XRP ETF dropping to 65%, down from earlier projections of 80% to 90%.

SEC Commissioner Retains Stance Against Crypto ETFs

As of today, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has held 13 internal votes, all about various crypto exchange-traded products (ETPs). These votes included updates on IBIT, BITB, GBTC, Bitwise’s BTC and ETH funds, and in-kind redemption protocols. All votes passed with a 3-1 outcome, SEC Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw being the sole dissenting voice.

Crenshaw, the only Democrat currently on the Commission, has consistently pushed back against the rising wave of crypto ETF approvals. According to journalist Eleanor Terrett, her firm stance is sending “a clear message” that she remains staunchly against crypto ETPs, including any move toward an XRP ETF.

The SEC recently approved in-kind creations and redemptions for both Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. This puts them on par with commodity-based ETPs like those backed by gold. While this update is seen as a win for crypto ETF infrastructure, Crenshaw’s resistance stands in stark contrast. Her objections suggest she may act as a consistent roadblock in future crypto-related votes, including proposed XRP ETFs.

Crenshaw’s disapproval extends beyond ETFs. She recently criticized SEC staff guidance on liquid staking, calling it legally fragile and lacking real-world grounding. According to her, the advisory “stacks factual assumptions” and fails to provide clear guidance to industry participants.

Furthermore, she also voiced strong opposition to recent staff guidance on USD-pegged stablecoins. Labeling the statement as “legally and factually flawed,” Crenshaw warned that it misrepresents the actual risks of stablecoins by echoing marketing phrases like “digital dollar,” which, in her view, dangerously mislead investors.

Such comments only deepen concerns that Crenshaw’s presence could complicate regulatory progress around Ripple and the XRP ETF, especially if her influence grows or gains support within the Commission.

XRP ETF Sentiment Swings on Polymarket

The odds for XRP ETF approval have fluctuated due to waning market confidence. Polymarket data shows a drop to 65% before bouncing back to 71%, down from highs above 90%.

CoinGape previously reported that after the ProShares Ultra XRP ETF (UXRP) launched successfully on NYSE Arca on July 18, the odds of the XRP ETF being approved increased to 86%. But during the most recent round of SEC votes, Crenshaw voted against the recent NYSE Arca filings.

Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas remains optimistic despite this. He said that the SEC might approve altcoin ETPs, including XRP ETFs. The reason for this optimism is that XRP now meets the new SEC listing requirements, which target tokens that have traded derivatives for at least six months.

Furthermore, there are rumors that a BlackRock XRP ETF may also be in the works, especially since BlackRock’s Director of Digital Assets, Maxwell Stein, is expected to speak at Ripple’s Swell 2025 conference.

Even though the foundation for crypto ETFs is getting stronger, Crenshaw’s persistent resistance could still be a problem. The coming months could determine how much the SEC commissioner could influence approval decisions.