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Highlights
- The Quantile Bitcoin model challenges traditional analysts who claim that BTC will hit $1M in 2025
- Its statistical findings based on long-term trends reveal Bitcoin price might reach $300K in 2029 and $1M in 2034.
- The model also challenges Cathy Wood, assigning only a 5% probability to her $1M prediction.
Bitcoin’s 2024 milestone elevated expectations from 2025. Now, bolder and more extravagant price predictions are shared in the market. Some boost crypto enthusiasts’ sentiments, and others spread the fear of a crash. The prediction of the New Quantile model also provides a unique perspective on the Bitcoin price rally and when it will hit $1M. Let’s discuss the findings.
Bitcoin Price Would Not $1M in 2025
Multiple Bitcoin price predictions for 2025 suggest that this digital asset will reach $1M. However, the new Quantile Bitcoin model discards such predictions. Its statistical outlook claims the possibility of $1M is extremely low for this year. The findings acknowledge the BTC price performance and its exponential growth but also question the feasibility of this six-figure target.
Quantile regression analysis considers Bitcoin’s adherence to power law trends (a more than ten-decade analysis). It suggests the path to a million targets requires a dramatic bubble excursion. More importantly, at least a 4σ standard deviation is needed for the BTC price to hit $1M in 2025, where historical trends reveal that it only fluctuates between -1σ and +2σ.
“To reach $1 million in 2025 would require a bubble excursion of 1.0 in the log, a multiplicative factor of 10 from the present price, and in log terms that is 1/0.24, which is greater than four standard deviations (> 4 σ). Throughout Bitcoin’s price history, we have not seen this even once, nor have we seen 3 σ, and prices have stayed overwhelmingly in the range of -1 σ on the downside and +2 σ maximum on the upside.”
The Quantile finding also challenges Cathy Woods’s views on Bitcoin. She claims the price can range from $650,000 to $1.5 million, depending on the base and bull cases. The quantile model’s statistical findings present different timelines.
Bitcoin Price Prediction: Timeline For $300K, $1M, $3M and $10M
moneyordebt X post says that Bitcoin is getting more predictable with declining price volatility. In this, the quasi-periodic bubbles play an important role. It indicates the cycle peak followed by correction due to long-term power law trends. Interestingly, this happens every four years, and the cycle has been set as 2013, 2017, 2021, 2025, and 2029 are next. In these years, BTC can create major price milestones.
Quantile’s Bitcoin price prediction revealed the timeline for this asset’s marking the major milestone. According to this, there is a 50% chance BTC price might hit $300k in 2029, with two years of uncertainty range, a 50% chance of $1M happening in 2034 with two years of uncertainty age, $3M in 2039, and $10M after 2046.
Returning to Cathy Woods’s findings, the Quantile statistics claim that there is only a 20% chance that the price of Bitcoin will hit $650k by 2030 and an even lesser (just 5%) chance of $1M hitting in 2030. However, there is a 50% chance of this happening by 2034.
What You Need To Know?
The Quantile model’s findings on Bitcoin price prediction are pretty amusing, as they consider the quantile regressions, bubble excursions, and historical trends. According to that, the BTC will hit $300k in 2030 (plus or minus 2 years). More importantly, the most anticipated $1M target will be achieved in 2034 or plus/minus two years, challenging many current BTC price predictions, which claim that this could happen in 2025. The pi cycle indicator hints that the BTC will hit prime in Sept. 2025. Based on that and other analyses, many analysts claim that a six-figure target can be achieved this year, but the Quantile model contradicts this. However, it also acknowledges the possibility of $300k if the bubble excursion got above 0.97 in quantile terms without popping before year-end.
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