NewsletterU.S. Inflation Data: BLS to Release CPI Report on October 24 Amid Government Shutdown
Highlights
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics has announced that it will release the CPI data on October 24.
- The data was originally meant to be released on October 15.
- The data release will happen just five days before the October Fed rate cut decision.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has rescheduled the release of the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) U.S. inflation data. The proposed BLS CPI release comes amid the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, while the crypto market will be watching this inflation data, as it could influence the FOMC decision.
BLS To Release U.S. Inflation Data On October 24
The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that it will publish the September CPI on October 24, rather than October 15, which was the original publication date for this data. The agency indicated that this is the only report that they will release while the U.S. government shutdown is ongoing.
This comes amid delays in other key macroeconomic data, such as U.S. jobs data, due to the ongoing U.S. government shutdown. Meanwhile, with the October 24 release, the U.S. inflation data will drop just five days before the October 29 FOMC meeting.
The U.S. inflation data could influence the rate-cut decision at the meeting, especially given that some Fed officials remain concerned about rising inflation. Fed Governor Michael Barr recently stated that they have to be cautious about adjusting monetary policy, warning that the Trump tariffs could create persistent inflation.
However, the FOMC minutes showed that most Fed officials are currently leaning towards more rate cuts by year-end. The officials indicated that the focus is now more on the weakening labor market rather than the inflation risks.
CME FedWatch data shows that there is currently a 96.7% chance that the Fed will make a 25 basis points (bps) cut at the October FOMC meeting. With a rate cut almost certain, a lower-than-expected U.S. inflation data could raise the possibility of a higher cut.
However, Fed Governor Chris Waller cautioned against increasing the pace or magnitude of the cuts. He believes that they are on the right track with regard to easing monetary policy, while he also indicated that he will support a 25 bps cut at both the October and December FOMC meetings.
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