XRP ETF Approval Odds Rise to 86% Following ProShares Launch Success

Polymarket data has now placed the odds of full XRP ETF approval at 86% following the successful debut of the ProShares Ultra XRP ETF.

XRP ETF Approval Odds Jump to 86%

According to Polymarket data, the odds of an approval of the XRP ETF have now surged past 86%. This marks a 15% increase in 24 hours amid the successful launch of the ProShares Ultra XRP ETF.

ProShares officially launched its Ultra XRP ETF (UXRP) on NYSE Arca on July 18, signaling positive sentiment around pending ETF approvals. Opening at $50.84, the leveraged fund quickly surged to an intraday high of $57.86 before closing up 6.10% at $53.94 on its first day of trading. 

Unlike standard products, this product offers 2x leveraged exposure, giving investors amplified upside potential tied to Ripple’s ongoing growth, ISO 20022 payment standard integration, and the rising tide of institutional adoption.

This successful launch, according to analysts, has once again demonstrated the size of the market for XRP ETFs. The early trading volume and price action indicate that XRP-based investment vehicles are gaining popularity even before regulators approve a real spot ETF.

Although the ProShares UXRP ETF is currently a futures-based, leveraged product, speculation is already circulating about its potential evolution. Well-followed crypto enthusiast Chad Steingraber confirmed on X that while UXRP isn’t yet a spot ETF, ProShares has signaled plans to file for a conversion shortly.

This would be similar to recent tactics used with Bitcoin and Ethereum products, where issuers initially introduced futures-based ETFs before requesting spot approval when market conditions and regulations permitted.

The Forces Pushing XRP Closer to ETF Approval

Several external factors have further increased the odds of XRP ETF approval. A major reason is the recent passing of important crypto laws in the U.S., including the GENIUS Act. This bill cleared the House after a long debate. It aims to clarify rules for stablecoins and strengthen the framework for digital assets. This creates a more positive ecosystem for ETF approvals.

SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce publicly eased worries about spot ETF rejections earlier this week, which further improved sentiment. This came after the SEC had delayed several decisions on crypto ETFs. Her comments gave the market confidence that, provided issuers adhere to compliance standards, the agency remains open to new products.

Now, with more explicit rules, fresh legislative backing, and proven demand, as seen on the first day of trading, the conversation has shifted from “if” to “when” an XRP ETF might gain full spot approval.