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Highlights
- A total of 19,000 BTC options worth $1.81 billion expired with a put-call ratio of 0.65.
- Bitcoin's recent price drop aligns with broader market pullbacks, driven by U.S. equity weakness.
- Upcoming key events, include the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, CPI data on January 15, and the FOMC meeting.
- Bitcoin's 30-day average exchange volume show reduced capital flows.
A massive 19,000 Bitcoin (BTC) options are set to expire before the release of US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data release today. The BTC price is showing some volatility taking a dive to $91,380 levels earlier today before recovering back above $94,000. A drop in Bitcoin funding rate and exchange volume hints at volatility in the short-term. In addition, a massive 141,000 ETH options will also expire today.
19000 BTC Options Expiry Amid Bitcoin Price Drop
A total of 19,000 Bitcoin options expired this week with a notional value of $1.81 billion. The BTC options expiry has a put-call ratio of 0.65, a maximum pain point of $97,000, hinting that the bullish bias continues despite the price decline, per the data from Deribit exchange.
The expiration occurred against the backdrop of a sharp pullback in the broader market, driven by weakness in U.S. equities and unfavorable macroeconomic conditions. Bitcoin price briefly dipped below $91,000, marking its lowest level in nearly a month. This decline comes along with a sharp surge in short-term implied volatility (IV) for BTC options, thereby hinting at market panic and uncertainty.
The crypto market is bracing for some macro headwinds such as Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data on Friday, US CPI data release on Jan 15, and the FOMC meeting later this month. Some Wall Street analysts are optimistic about Bitcoin price recovery along with a surge in the global M2 money supply.
Bitcoin Short-Term Prediction After BTC Options Expiry
Along with BTC options data, Bitcoin short-term indicators flash concerns showing weakness for the world’s largest crypto asset class. A key metric, Hot Capital—representing capital revived over the past seven days—has plummeted 66.7%, dropping from its December 12 peak of $96.2 billion to $32.0 billion.
Similarly, the 30-day average of Bitcoin exchange volume has now dropped to the 365-day average showing a sharp drop in capital flows since the all-time high of $108K in December. The 7-day moving average of the mean funding rate, along with rates from the top three perpetual markets, remains below the neutral threshold of 0.01%.
This reflects a persistent lack of demand from aggressive buyers, even after the brief rally to $102,000. As of press time, BTC price is trading 1.28% up at $94,517 levels with a market cap of $1.87 trillion.
141,000 ETH Options Expiring Today
A total of 141,000 Ethereum (ETH) options expired today, carrying a notional value of $460 million. The contracts closed with a Put/Call ratio of 0.48, signaling a bullish skew in market sentiment. The Max Pain point for the expiration was recorded at $3,450, highlighting a key price level for traders and market makers.
Along with Bitcoin, the Ethereum price faced strong selling pressure and is trying to establish support at $3,300. According to the recent analysis from Glassnode, Ethereum (ETH) futures open interest (OI) is following a pattern similar to Bitcoin (BTC).
The mid-term trendline for ETH futures OI peaked in mid-December before experiencing a decline. However, the short-term trendline has since rebounded, indicating that traders are reopening positions after an initial reduction. Additionally, the Ethereum whale buying can provide further support to the upside.
US Nonfarm Payrolls Data Release Today
On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will publish the much-awaited US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for December 2024. This jobs report will be critical in deciding the next direction of US Dollar giving some insights into future rate cuts by the Fed.
Economists predict the December Nonfarm Payrolls report to reveal an addition of 160,000 jobs to the U.S. economy. Furthermore, the unemployment rate is likely to stay at 4.2%. Amid stick inflation, the Fed has already hinted that they would move slowly with interest rate cuts this year. While reviewing the December employment situation, analysts at TD Securities said:
“We expect payroll growth to cool down closer to trend in December following the October-November gyrations that were triggered by one-off shocks. The UE rate likely stabilized at 4.2% despite our expectation for a meaningful rebound in the household survey’s employment series. Separately, we look for wage growth to mean-revert to 0.1% m/m following a string of hot monthly prints”.
Also, the dollar index (DXY) remained above the 109 level while US 10-year Treasury yields hovered around 4.7%, reflecting the Federal Reserve’s hawkish shift.
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