94,000 Bitcoin Options Will Expire Today, Here’s What Data Tells

Today is the inaugural monthly expiration of Bitcoin options following the recent green light for the spot Bitcoin ETF earlier this month. Despite the approval, Bitcoin has encountered notable volatility, experiencing significant selling pressure and dipping below the $40,000 threshold. As of now, Bitcoin is valued at $39,925, with a market capitalization of $782 billion.

Bitcoin Options Expiry See Significant Volumes

Greeks.Live, a platform specializing in options data, has provided insights into the January 26 options data, revealing notable figures for both Bitcoin (BTC).

Approximately 94,000 Bitcoin options will expire, featuring a Put Call Ratio of 0.51, a Maxpain point of $41,000, and a notional value amounting to $3.75 billion. In the case of ETH, 932,000 options are approaching expiry, showcasing a Put Call Ratio of 0.31, a Maxpain point of $2,300, and a notional value totaling $2.07 billion.

The cryptocurrency market has experienced weakness this week, with the recent grayscale sell-off attributed directly to the launch of the Bitcoin Spot ETF. Ongoing volatility reduction is evident, marked by declining major-term Implied Volatilities (IVs), and some short-term IVs dropping below the 40% threshold. The Put Call Ratio (PCR) has sharply fallen, indicating decreased bearish activity, primarily characterized by more traders selling calls and fewer engaging in active calls.

As more than 30% of options approach their expiration today, there is anticipation that the margin released during this period could once again impact IV, contributing to the return of Bitcoin’s option term structure.

Bitcoin Price Actions Ahead in 2024

The Bitcoin price has been moving downwards post the spot ETF approval and analysts expect a further downside to $35,000 and below before Bitcoin resumes its next bull run. Everyone is now bullish about the upcoming Bitcoin halving scheduled around 2024 with analysts predicting a new bull run to start thereafter.

However, some market analysts have advised caution! In 2024, Bloomberg senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone anticipates that Bitcoin is likely to underperform the stock market on a risk-adjusted basis, while gold may outperform.

Despite positive sentiments surrounding the approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and the upcoming Bitcoin halving, macroeconomic factors could impede the cryptocurrency’s ability to achieve new all-time highs in 2024. McGlone emphasizes that market expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the United States Federal Reserve, which typically favors risk-on assets like Bitcoin, may be misplaced.

#Gold set to beat #Bitcoin in 2024 unless the stock market can keep going up. https://t.co/ApRZ8K8Ptz

— Mike McGlone (@mikemcglone11) January 25, 2024