Altcoin Season Index Signals Potential Resumption of BTC Price Rally

The recent surge of altcoin season index above 60 suggests a strong BTC price surge in the coming months, reported asset manager VanEck. Currently, the BTC price has been facing resistance at $100K with some analysts calling for a possible top. But according to VanEck, the Bitcoin bull run isn’t over and investors could see major fireworks in the next six months.

Altcoin Season Index Flashes Bitcoin Gains Ahead

Investment firm VanEck has shared optimistic insights for Bitcoin, linking strong altcoin performance to potential BTC gains. According to their analysis, when the Altcoin Season Index surpasses 60—indicating that over 60% of the top 50 altcoins have outperformed Bitcoin over the last 90 days—Bitcoin tends to deliver positive returns in the subsequent months.

The Altcoin Season Index measures the percentage of the top 50 cryptocurrencies outperforming Bitcoin over a 90-day period. A value above 60 suggests a strong altcoin season, historically correlating with favorable BTC performance.

VanEck’s findings reveal that after the index crosses 60, Bitcoin’s average returns are: +10% over 1 month, +30% over 3 months, +73% over 6 months. The study, which analyzed 61 such instances, also highlighted Bitcoin’s probability of positive returns: 56.5% over 1 month, 59.9% over 3 months, and 61.1% over 6 months. This means that the BTC price can rally to $160K by mid-2025.

Earlier this week, altcoins faced strong selling pressure after a mega rally following Donald Trump’s victory. However, market analysts call it a healthy pullback adding that it has helped remove excess froth from the sector. Additionally, altcoins have given a healthy bounce back from the super trendline.

What’s Next for BTC Price?

Crypto analyst IncomeSharks shares robust demand for Bitcoin below the $95,000 mark, stating that price wicks in the zone are quickly bought up. The pattern has occurred seven times, reinforcing the area as a critical support level.

“Everything about this is bullish,” noted IncomeSharks, emphasizing the lack of any technical analysis (TA) indicators pointing to a market top. The consistent buying pressure suggests strong investor confidence in further upward price movement, despite the altcoin market soaring.

Blockchain analytics platform Santiment also reported that the BTC price drop to $94,200 triggered a major fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD). Social media discussions are now rife with calls for Bitcoin to plunge further, targeting levels between $80,000 and $89,000. Santiment interprets the growing bearish sentiment as a potentially bullish signal for BTC.

As of press time, the Bitcoin price is trading flat at $97,700 levels with its market cap at $1.933 trillion. On the other hand, inflows in spot Bitcoin ETFs have continued at a strong pace. On Tuesday, the net inflows stood at $438.5 million with BlackRock’s IBIT netting $295.6 million and Fidelity’s FBTC netting $210.5 million, per data from Farside Investors.