Arthur Hayes Says The Bottom Is Near As Bitcoin Crashes To Six-Month Low

Bitcoin plunged to a six-month low on Friday after a sharp two-month decline pushed the price under $82,000. The fall marked a steep pullback from the late-October peak near $126,000. BitMEX co-founder has commented on the crash, suggesting that a bottom might be near. 

Arthur Hayes Provides Optimism Amid Bitcoin Crash

In an X post, Arthur Hayes declared that the bottom for BTC is near. However, he advised market participants to be patient before going all in, noting they should wait for U.S. stocks to correct as well. 

He further indicated that more money printing will spark the next wave of liquidity for Bitcoin, but that AI tech stocks need to crater for that to happen. Notably, the BitMEX co-founder recently attributed the BTC crash to a decline in USD liquidity.

He made that statement while BTC was still trading at around $90,000 and had rightly predicted that the flagship crypto could still drop to the $80,000 to $85,000 range before a potential rebound. However, he also mentioned back then that BTC could still rally to $200,000 by year-end.

The Bitcoin price dropped below $82,000 today, just in line with Hayes’ prediction. Now, it remains to be seen whether this marks the bottom for the flagship crypto, as he has predicted, with the crypto also eyeing the $200,000 target by year-end.

Historical Patterns Echo as Bitcoin Repeats Cycle Corrections

The latest sharp sell-off deepened as forced unwinding rippled through trading platforms. In a recent X post, Raoul Pal highlighted that the current phase is a hard one due to rapid exits from positions and concerns about pressure on some market makers.

The crowded nature of the market’s move now bears similarities to 2021, when huge assets posted steep losses before surging into new highs. The speed and ferocity of the recent fall are reminiscent of earlier shock moves during crypto cycles.

Pal pointed out that the historical data reveals multiple large corrections during extended bullish periods. That 72% drop from 2019 to 2020, during the pandemic’s earliest months, was among the largest.

Several 30% pullbacks in 2016 and 2017 have contributed to the list of steep retracements in the history of cryptocurrencies. These shifts came with little obvious external catalyst and were later followed by renewed strength. Pal sees the current oversold condition lining up with previous de-risking cycles.

Macroeconomic expectations shifted this week. CME FedWatch data indicated that the likelihood of a 25-basis-point rate cut increased to almost 71% following comments by John Williams signaling a near-term rate cut. The jump followed a decline in expectations earlier this week, as prospects for a cut next month faded. Traders are keeping an eye on how changing policy tinges will impact liquidity.

Peter Brandt had a macro prediction. He believes that Bitcoin could hit $200K after crashing to $58K in the next major cycle. Brandt said the move could happen around the third quarter of 2029. He said that he still holds a chunk of his Bitcoin far below entry levels like this. He restated his long-term prospects after recent warnings of short-term downside risk.