Biden Faces 80% Odds on Polymarket to Exit Presidential Race

The probability of the US President Joe Biden withdrawing from the race on the prediction market Polymarket has risen to 80%. These new odds are quite promising as reports claim that Biden is anticipated to make the decision as soon as this weekend.

Biden 80% Odds on Polymarket to Exit Race

According to Polymarket, the chances of Biden dropping out have risen to 80%. Only two days ago, they were at 33%, but with the current events, they have almost doubled. The pressure is said to be due to Biden’s age, his recent Covid-19 diagnosis, and a poor debate last month.

At the same time, top Democrats like Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer have been urging Biden to consider stepping down. Also, according to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Biden might not be able to defeat the GOP candidate, the previous President, Donald Trump, according to the polls. 

Wowza, @Polymarket odds of Biden dropping out are now up to 80%. Compare that to @JDVance1’s 71% odds of becoming the VP pick, which turned out to be spot on. pic.twitter.com/ymDbCpAwGy

— Eleanor Terrett (@EleanorTerrett) July 18, 2024

The report also stated that former President Barack Obama also encouraged Biden to try to evaluate his chances of getting re-elected.

Pressure Ahead of the Democratic National Convention

As the Democratic National Convention is set to take place on August 19 in Chicago, the pressure is mounting. The convention will be a very important one especially because Democrats are expected to choose their candidate for president. The higher odds on Polymarket show that the situation is becoming more and more unpredictable and tense within the party.

In an effort to address the growing concerns, Biden has insisted that he is healthy enough to serve as president. According to the White House doctor Kevin O’Connor who recently conducted a physical examination on Biden, he is a healthy active robust 81 year old male who is physically fit to perform the duties of the president.

However, Biden has also declared that he will not run for the presidency if his health becomes poor.

Bitcoin advocate Robert Kiyosaki Support

Amid these political moves, the Bitcoin advocate, Robert Kiyosaki, a supporter of Donald Trump, has been more active on social networks. Kiyosaki’s comments on X (formerly Twitter) concerning Biden’s recent Covid-19 positive test portrayed that some members within Biden’s party might consider this as a chance to call for the withdrawal of Biden from the race.

Kiyosaki suggested that the perfect Democratic ticket should be Michelle Obama and Kamala Harris against Trump and J. D. Vance, thus paving the way for the contest between “two black women versus two white men” in another highly charged election.

BIDEN has COVID? Seems like the people who pull his strings are about to find an excuse to replace hom. I still believe the best ticket would be Michelle Obama and Kamala Harris versus Trump and Vance. Two black women against two white men. Then let the circus begin. Which…

— Robert Kiyosaki (@theRealKiyosaki) July 18, 2024

In addition, on Polymarket, the probabilities of Vice President Kamala Harris becoming the Democratic nominee have increased to 63% from 15% the previous day. This shift indicates that more and more traders are putting their money on Harris to be the vice president should Biden choose to drop out of the race.

The odds of former President Donald Trump winning the election slightly decreased to 65%, down from a 70% high. This dip follows an assassination attempt on Trump last weekend, which he survived. This comes at the backdrop of President Trump’s pledge to be present at the next Bitcoin conference in addition to his pro-crypto stands thus far.

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Kelvin Munene Murithi

Kelvin Munene is a crypto and finance journalist with over 5 years of experience, offering in-depth market analysis and expert commentary . With a Bachelor's degree in Journalism and Actuarial Science from Mount Kenya University, Kelvin is known for his meticulous research and strong writing skills, particularly in cryptocurrency, blockchain, and financial markets. His work has been featured across top industry publications such as Coingape, Cryptobasic, MetaNews, Cryptotimes, Coinedition, TheCoinrepublic, Cryptotale, and Analytics Insight among others, where he consistently provides timely updates and insightful content. Kelvin’s focus lies in uncovering emerging trends in the crypto space, delivering factual and data-driven analyses that help readers make informed decisions. His expertise extends across market cycles, technological innovations, and regulatory shifts that shape the crypto landscape. Beyond his professional achievements, Kelvin has a passion for chess, traveling, and exploring new adventures.