Uptober Rally: Bitcoin Breaks $28k As US Avoids Government Shutdown

Bitcoin (BTC) enthusiasts have reason to celebrate as the cryptocurrency embarks on what is fondly called “Uptober” with a strong start, surpassing the $28,000 mark. Significantly, this positive rally coincides with a quiet phase in the United States macro data scene, as a government shutdown gets averted at the eleventh hour.

Surge Past $28,000 Sparks Optimism

As the calendar flipped to October, Bitcoin (BTC) took an upward leap of 5%, momentarily touching $28,488, as per CoinGecko. This movement marked Bitcoin’s highest weekly close since mid-August, thus erasing the less impressive performance observed in the preceding weeks. Consequently, market analysts and crypto enthusiasts are buzzing with optimism. 

BTC/USD 1-day price chart (source: CoinGecko)

Michaël van de Poppe, a trader,  hinted at an upward trend while acknowledging the potential for a complete retracement. He, however, emphasized that every Bitcoin consolidation phase spells an opportune moment for altcoins to catch up, setting the stage for an intriguing final quarter of 2023.

Moreover, the promising start to October contrasts with the cryptocurrency’s performance in the same month last year. Besides, historical data showcases October as a month generally favoring Bitcoin bulls. According to CoinGlass, Bitcoin has yet to conclude the month of October at a lower value than it began in 2018. Hence, the tag “Uptober” carries substantial merit among the cryptocurrency community.

Bitcoin Quarterly returns(%) (source: CoinGlass)

Macro Triggers and Bitcoin’s Forward Path

On the macroeconomic front, while Bitcoin traders revel in positive price action, the US macro data trail starts October on a quieter note. The anticipated government shutdown was deftly avoided, with Ukraine aid being the contentious point. The Federal Reserve officials’ speeches, slated for this week, will likely be closely monitored for cues ahead of the November 1 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

Financial commentator Ted Talksmacro also highlighted a divergence between net US dollar liquidity and BTC/USD. This analysis suggests a sideways or upward trend for Bitcoin in the coming years, though cautioning on potential short-term fluctuations before a quicker ascent.

However, Bitcoin’s mining difficulty is projected to drop by 0.7% in its subsequent automated readjustment, bucking the trend correlating with bullish market sentiments. This subtle shift is amidst a fiercely competitive mining scene and record-high hash rates, indicating long-term commitments from miners to the network.

The juxtaposition of Bitcoin’s promising start to “Uptober” against a backdrop of a subdued macroeconomic landscape in the US hints at independent market dynamics. Moreover, with Federal Reserve deliberations on the horizon and the continuous engagement of miners, Bitcoin’s journey through October is set to be keenly observed by investors and analysts alike.