Sign Up on MEXC
Highlights
- Bitcoin plunged nearly 8% in late May, crashing from $112,000 to $103,527 and erasing $1.701 trillion in market value.
- Technical exhaustion, the "TACO Trade" effect, and attempted liquidation cascade are key reasons behind the crash.
- Analysts expect volatility in June, with potential for a 10% rally if historical trends hold, but caution remains due to tariff uncertainty and Fed decisions.
Bitcoin (BTC) plunged nearly 8% in late May, crashing from a high of $112,000 to $103,527, erasing $1701 billion in market value. This crash also wiped out $1.81 billion positions for BTC. As June begins, should investors buy the dip or expect BTC to extend its crash?
Why Bitcoin Crashed: 3 Key Reasons
The start of May saw Bitcoin price soar 18.70% and set an all-time high at $112,000 on US-based crypto exchange Coinbase on May 22. This impressive uptrend faced exhaustion over the next ten days, resulting in an 8% correction. According to data from Velo, nearly $2 billion in BTC positions faced liquidation. Let’s examine three key reasons why Bitcoin experienced a crash.
Technical Exhaustion
As noted in the previous CoinGape article, the bearish monthly and weekly divergence, as well as the swing failure pattern, are key drivers of the ongoing Bitcoin crash. Moreover, a similar combination of divergence and swing failure pattern noted in the previous cycle is showing up again. These are clear signs of exhaustion and hint at a steep correction for Bitcoin (BTC).
The “TACO Trade” Effect
Investors have dubbed Trump’s tariff reversals as TACO, which means “Trump Always Chickens Out.” After a reporter asked Trump this question, he responded, saying it was a “nasty” question. Both the stock and the crypto markets fear more aggressive tariffs after Trump was questioned about TACO, potentially triggering risk-off sentiment.
Attempted Liquidation Cascade
James Wynn, a trader on decentralized exchange Hyperliquid, caught everybody’s attention after his 40x leveraged Bitcoin long position’s notional value hit $1 billion. Many believe that the recent drop in Bitcoin price was a ploy to hunt his liquidation level. However, before a liquidation cascade occurred, Hyperliquid began closing James Wynn’s positions in increments.
So far, Wynn has been liquidated twice on his long positions, losing more than $100 million.
June Outlook: Analysts Remain Cautiously Optimistic
PattaTrades, an analyst, pointed out a potential bullish Bitcoin price outlook going into June.
“For the past 7 months, $BTC has traded +10% in the opening week post-monthly close. I’m seeking opportunities here.”
Historical trend suggests a June rebound.
If history rhymes, then investors can expect a 10% BTC price rally in the first week of June.
Founder of Capriole Funds, Charles Edwards, remains cautious as he awaits the weekly close. He added,
“Key $104K level broken on daily… will be interesting to see where we close this weekly. Still a chance to save it…”
In another tweet, Edwards pointed to his Bitcoin Heater indicator to suggest that a best-case scenario could see the BTC price chop, while a worst-case scenario would cause a “dump.”
The heater indicator uses relative OI build-ups from futures, perpetuals and options to determine the growing Heat.
Fundstrat’s Tom Lee noted from a macroeconomic standpoint that the Fed’s decision in 2026 could help ease the uncertainty caused by tariffs. He added,
“Tariff uncertainty hammered risk assets, but Fed dovishness in 2026 makes this a dip-buying opportunity.”
Although Lee is referring to stock markets, Bitcoin also behaves as a risk asset, which is why both are experiencing a correction as May comes to an end.
Here’s a summarized view of what different analysts expect for Bitcoin going into June.
- Patta Trades expects a bullish rebound if Bitcoin price holds $100K.
- Capriole’s Charles Edward expects sideways as a best-case scenario and a potential dump after the breakdown of $104K support on the daily timeframe.
- Tom Lee remains bullish on risk assets and says dips are for buying.
Key Levels to Watch in June
- Bullish invalidation will occur if Bitcoin price produces a weekly close below $100K. This opens the risk of a correction to $92K.
- A weekly close above $104K will be a perfect short squeeze opportunity that will invalidate the bearish outlook and propel BTC price to $110K.
Conclusion: Prepare for Volatility
Investors should prepare for an uptick in volatility in the first week of June, potentially skewed in favor of bulls, as noted by PattaTrades. However, key events to watch include Trump’s tariff decision and the evolution of the US-China trade war. Additionally, the comments from the Federal Reserve chairman on rate cuts will play a pivotal role in setting the tone for June.
For long-term price prediction on what to expect from Bitcoin in the second half of 2025: Read This
- Bitcoin Treasuries Add Nearly $1B BTC This Week as Holdings Cross 1M BTC
- Peter Schiff Criticizes Bitcoin’s Performance Following Gold’s Rally To New ATH
- Arkham Uncovers $5 Billion in Untouched Bitcoin From Germany’s Movie2K Seizure
- Ethereum Spot ETFs Record $447 Million in Outflows Amid Crypto Market Decline
- World Liberty Financial Discloses Reason for Blacklisting 272 Wallets
- HBAR Price Forecast: Analyst Targets 123% Rally as ETF Approval Odds Hit 90%
- Solana Price Prediction: Will Solana Hit $320 as SOL Strategies Gains Nasdaq Approval?
- XRP Price Forecast: Analyst Eyes $127 as BlackRock Joins Ripple Swell 2025
- Chainlink Price Eyes $55 as Reserve Holdings Jump With 43,937 LINK Addition
- Cardano Price Targets 30% Surge as Top Economist Calls for Fed Cut
