Bitcoin ETF: Analyst Hints Potential Approval Sequence to Watch

Eric Balchunas, a well-known ETF analyst of Bloomberg Intelligence has outlined a possible sequence of events to watch out for regarding Bitcoin ETF approvals in the United States.

Potential Bitcoin ETF Approval Sequence

Balchunas shared his thoughts in a recent thread on the X platform when asked about the potential timeline for the launch of a Bitcoin ETF. Balchunas acknowledged the presence of unknown factors but offered a best guess. 

According to him, it’s likely that the 19b-4 filings will be approved in the not-so-distant future. These filings are essential for establishing Bitcoin ETFs and are currently under review by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). 

Once the 19b-4s are approved, there might be a time gap while the SEC prepares for the next steps. After this, the SEC is expected to approve S-1 filings, which would bring the launch of a Bitcoin ETF closer. Balchunas even hinted that the launch could be just a matter of days once the S-1 filings are approved.

However, another user, @EliDigitalCash, pointed out that this will unlikely happen by the end of November because there haven’t been any amendments to the 19b-4 filings based on SEC feedback. 

James Seyffart, a fellow Bloomberg ETF analyst, chimed in, suggesting that there may not be a need for amendments to the 19b-4 filings, citing the Grayscale case as a reference. He mentioned that the SEC might ask applicants without certain language to add it, but he didn’t believe that significant changes were necessary based on the court’s opinion. 

It is worth noting that Steven McClurg, CIO of Valkyrie Investments earlier predicted that the US SEC would approve a spot Bitcoin ETF by the end of November.

Speculations Regarding Ethereum ETF

Looking beyond the Bitcoin ETF, the conversation on X also touched upon the potential approval of an Ethereum (ETH) spot ETF that some firms including Grayscale are hoping to launch. 

When asked about the possibilities, Balchunas noted that it’s hard to imagine it would take too long after a Bitcoin ETF’s approval. However, he also highlighted the SEC’s cautious nature, suggesting it would likely want to see the Bitcoin ETF up and running for a bit before considering an Ethereum ETF.

Seyffart echoed this sentiment, emphasizing the uncertainty surrounding the exact timeline for an Ethereum ETF. He acknowledged the need for patience and close observation, as predicting how the approval process will unfold remains a challenging task.