BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes Predicts BTC Price Slump After Bitcoin Halving

BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes has shared his thoughts in a recent blog post regarding the current state of the economy, the quantitative tightening measures, as well as the Bitcoin price performance around the Bitcoin halving event. On Monday, April 8, the BTC price gave a surprise move all the way to $72,000 and continues to show strength. However, the bigger question is whether BTC will be able to hold around the ATH as we approach the Bitcoin halving.

Bitcoin Price Volatility Around Halving Event

In a recent forecast, Arthur Hayes anticipates a decline in Bitcoin prices both prior to and following the halving event. He suggests that during this period, US dollar liquidity will be constrained, contributing to heightened selling pressure on crypto assets. However, Hayes predicts that after May 1st, the quantitative tightening (QT) cycle will ease, reverting to the standard rhythm in line with US inflation trends. Hayes wrote:

Bitcoin halving “is seen as a bullish catalyst for crypto markets. I agree that it will pump prices in the medium term; however, the price action directly before and after could be negative”.

In an analysis shared by crypto expert Rekt Capital, Bitcoin appears to be gradually shifting from its Pre-Halving Retrace phase to a “Re-Accumulation” phase. The objective now is for Bitcoin to maintain sideways movement leading up to and following the Halving event.

Typically, the re-accumulation phase can span several weeks to even up to 150 days, which translates to approximately 5 months. During this phase, many investors may become restless due to boredom, impatience, and disappointment stemming from the lack of immediate significant results in their Bitcoin investments post-Halving. However, it’s noteworthy that in this particular cycle, the re-accumulation Range is forming around the new all-time high territory for the first time.

Eyes on the Fed Rate Cuts

Ahead this week, the crypto market is awaiting two important events i.e. the March CPI data and the FOMC meeting. All eyes will be on how the Fed is planning to navigate the rate cuts decision.

In a statement, Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz expressed his belief that despite a lack of compelling reasons, the Federal Reserve might still opt to cut rates. Novogratz sees this potential move as a favorable scenario for assets like Bitcoin ($BTC), gold, silver, and copper.

Call me crazy but I don’t see one good reason for the fed to cut rates. Yet think they will. It’s a great set up for $BTC, gold, silver, copper. It’s not a great set up for the USA though. We need a politician who will cut spending dramatically!

Sound of silence…

— Mike Novogratz (@novogratz) April 8, 2024