BLS to Release Jobs Report on Nov. 20 as Uncertainty Over Fed Rate Cut Persists

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has provided an update on when it will release the September jobs report following the U.S. government reopening. This comes as the December Fed rate cut decision remains uncertain, with some Fed officials indicating that a softening labor market may no longer be enough to warrant a cut. Amid this uncertainty, crypto traders are currently paring their bets on another cut in December.

BLS To Release Jobs Report Next Week Amid Fed Rate Cut Uncertainty

In a release, the BLS announced November 20 as the revised release date for the September jobs report, with the data dropping at 8:30 am ET. The jobs report will be the first macro data that the BLS will release following the reopening of the U.S. government.

The agency failed to provide an update on when it will release the October jobs report. There is also no update on when the BLS will release the October CPI and PPI reports. Notably, the agency released the September CPI report during the government shutdown, the only macro data it released during that period, just before the October Fed rate cut decision.

The jobs data and other macro data that the BLS may release soon will influence the Fed’s decision at the December FOMC meeting. These macro data are also expected to give market participants insights into what the rate-cut decision might be at that meeting, amid uncertainty over whether the committee will lower rates.

The committee has already made two Fed rate cuts this year, mainly due to concerns about a softening labor market. However, some Fed officials have suggested that the softening labor market may no longer be sufficient to justify lowering interest rates, especially with inflation well above their 2% target. Fed President Jeff Schmid stated that further cuts will have long-lasting effects on inflation and will not do much to patch cracks in the labor market.

Odds Of A December Cut Continue To Drop

The odds of a December Fed rate cut continue to fall. CME FedWatch data shows that there is now only a 44% chance that the Fed will lower rates by 25 basis points at the December FOMC meeting. Meanwhile, there is a 56% chance that rates will remain unchanged following the meeting.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell already stated that a December cut was far from certain. Meanwhile, FOMC members such as Fed Presidents Austan Goolsbee, John Williams, and Alberto Musalem have also suggested that they might not support another rate cut due to concerns over rising inflation. Williams, in particular, stated that inflation is too high and doesn’t seem to be moving toward their target.