Crypto Traders Bet Against U.S.-Iran Ceasefire This Month as Iran Denies Peace Talks

Confidence in a US-Iran Ceasefire this month has weakened in crypto prediction markets. Traders are adjusting expectations as the conflict continues. Market pricing now suggests that a near-term diplomatic breakthrough remains uncertain. However, Iran has denied reports of peace outreach to the United States as the conflict continues.

Polymarket Traders Lower Odds of March US-Iran Ceasefire

Data from Polymarket indicates that the chances of a ceasefire between the US and Iran before March 31 are low. However, current contracts suggest a 29% probability of a US-Iran Ceasefire before the end of the month.

The current expectations represent a significant shift from earlier predictions. Initially, when US and Israeli strikes against Iran took place during the weekend, contracts indicated a US-Iran Ceasefire probability of above 60%. However, current predictions suggest a reduced probability of a US-Iran Ceasefire.

The predictions have reduced significantly owing to President Donald Trump’s statements. Trump confirmed more airstrikes to hit Iran and indicated that the US military action could take four to five weeks. Consequently, expectations for a US-Iran ceasefire have decreased.

However, long-term predictions for a US-Iran ceasefire are higher. According to contracts, there is a 48% probability of a US-Iran Ceasefire by the end of April. Expectations for a US-Iran Ceasefire in May are higher, above 65%.

The contracts for a US-Iran Ceasefire have seen substantial trading. The contracts for a US-Iran Ceasefire have generated more than $12 million in volume.

The war prediction markets have faced criticism from US lawmakers. Several Democrats indicated that the prediction markets are inappropriate. They also indicated that insiders could gain from sensitive information.

Recently, Polymarket was forced to withdraw contracts related to a nuclear bomb detonation somewhere in the world. Earlier in the week, Polymarket withdrew contracts related to a nuclear bomb detonation somewhere in the world.

Iran Denies Peace Outreach as War Costs Rise

According to a Bloomberg report, Iran’s diplomatic efforts remain ambiguous. Reports indicated that Iranian operatives indirectly made contact with the CIA to discuss terms for ending the war.

The Iranian government flatly denied the claims. According to a report from Tasnim News, a semi-official news agency in Iran, a Ministry of Intelligence source called the claims a “pure falsehood and psychological warfare.”

The financial costs of the war have also been a point of interest. According to a report from the Pentagon, the war against Iran is costing the US $1 billion every day. This is a burden for a nation already dealing with high levels of debt.

However, the cryptocurrency market is also being evaluated in relation to the war. A JPMorgan analysis suggested that, despite its recent rise to $74,000, the Bitcoin price still risks decline.

The bank alluded to the Ukraine war to highlight how markets react during geopolitical crises such as the Iran war. At the start of the Ukraine war, stocks and BTC held steady and even rallied before selling off as it became clear the war would last for a while.