Donald Trump US Election Odds Hit New ATH, What’s Next?

As the U.S. election nears, Donald Trump’s lead over Vice President Kamala Harris has reached new highs on Polymarket, registering a 66.7% chance of winning. With the possibility of a “Republican trifecta” in the presidency, Senate, and House, analysts predict that the chances for crypto-friendly legislation could increase. 

In recent weeks, these odds have drawn attention, rising from 28% to 48%, according to Polymarket data.

Donald Trump’s Odds Spark Optimism for Crypto Regulation Reforms

Analysts from Presto report that the odds of a Republican sweep in the US Election have reached 48% on Polymarket. This projected outcome would give the GOP control over the legislative and executive branches, heightening the chances for passing crypto-friendly laws. Notably, six crypto-related bills, including the FIT21 market structure bill, have already passed the House and await Senate approval. 

A Republican Senate, analysts believe, could bring favorable changes to regulatory frameworks that have delayed progress in the digital assets sector. Most recently, Consensys had to cut 20% of its workforce, impacting 162 employees, due to regulatory challenges posed by the U.S. SEC 

However, as odds for Donald Trump surge, his lead over Kamala Harris on Polymarket has hit an all-time high at 66.7%, while the GOP’s odds of controlling the Senate stand at 83% and 51% for the House. Analysts argue that these rising numbers on Polymarket show growing market confidence in Trump’s chances to implement pro-crypto policies.

Trump's odds just set another all-time high against Kamala Harris.

🟥 Trump • 66.7% chance
📘 Harris • 33.3% chance pic.twitter.com/aULiYJlkpC

— Polymarket (@Polymarket) October 29, 2024

Bitcoin and Crypto Markets React to US Election Predictions

Amid heightened speculations, Bitcoin price has soared past the $73,000 mark, closing in on the previous all-time high. Many investors attribute this crypto market surge to the anticipation of a Donald Trump win, which could lead to clearer crypto regulations. 

Concurrently, Spot Bitcoin ETFs have attracted substantial inflows since early October, with nearly $4 billion invested, as demand for direct exposure to Bitcoin increased.

Beyond Bitcoin, other cryptocurrency-related equities have also rallied. Stocks of companies such as MicroStrategy, which holds substantial Bitcoin reserves, saw a 52-week high as well. 

In addition, Polymarket has emerged as one of the largest platforms for predictions, with bets on the US Election reaching $3 billion in cumulative volume. The platform’s active bettors rose from just 4,000 at the start of the year to nearly 200,000. 

More so, open interest on Polymarket remains high, although analysts from Kaiko have questioned the platform’s predictive reliability. However, Polymarket CEO responded to critics stating that the platform operates with a non-partisan model

Despite these concerns, Donald Trump’s rising odds have boosted Polymarket’s volume and market engagement. Analysts believe this spike in election-related bets reflects market sentiment in favor of Donald Trump’s policies.