Donald Trump’s Victory Odds Decline, Here’s How Bitcoin and Altcoins React
Highlights
- Swing states like Wisconsin and Michigan show gains for Kamala Harris, influencing crypto investor sentiment.
- A French trader reportedly placed a $38 million bet on Trump's victory, hoping for an $80 million return if he wins.
- Bitcoin's price fell below $70,000, with broader altcoin corrections as uncertainty looms.
After a clear lead of over 60% during the past week, the Donald Trump victory chances dropped by 4.5% on Polymarket slipping to 58.1% as Kamala Harris makes inroads into swing states. Thus, investors in the broader crypto market maintain caution as Bitcoin and altcoins take a pause before further directional moves.
Donald Trump Loses Majority In Swing States
Over the past week, former President Trump held the victory odds strongly to more than 60% per the Polymarket data. However, on Friday evening, these numbers dropped by 4 percentage points. At 58.1% now, Donald Trump still maintains a lead by 16 percentage points over his rival and Democratic nominee Kamala Harris.
The two states where Harris is once again gaining ground over Trump are Wisconsin and Michigan. However, he holds a formidable lead in other states like Arizona, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Georgia.
Latest Swing State Odds (% chance of winning)
🟥 Arizona • Trump 76% – Harris 24%
🟥 Georgia • Trump 72% – Harris 28%
🟥 Pennsylvania • Trump 57% – Harris 43%
🟥 Nevada • Trump 63% – Harris 37%
🟦 Wisconsin • Trump 49% – Harris 51%
🟦 Michigan • Trump 42% – Harris 58%… pic.twitter.com/L3bToKaSwC— Polymarket (@Polymarket) November 1, 2024
Just over the last two days, Donald Trump’s winning percentage numbers have dropped ten odd percentage points. Investors have already taken massive bets over the rising victory odds of Donald Trump over the past month. However, this recent swing can bring some jitters across the investor community.
As per the latest WSJ report a French user is betting more than $38 million on Donald Trump’s victory while stating that he has no political motive. The user identified himself as a French national who previously lived in the United States and worked as a bank trader. If Trump wins, the user stands to gain over $80 million, but a Kamala Harris victory could mean a total or significant loss.
Bitcoin and Altcoins Take a Pause
Following the surge to $73,000 earlier this week, the Bitcoin price plunged on the last day of October to settle under $70,000. However, yesterday’s correction dragged the altcoins even lower with ETH, SOL, XRP, and others falling by even greater percentage points.
Bitcoin speculators are increasingly drawn to leveraged futures positions as anticipation builds around the upcoming U.S. election. Meanwhile, data reveals that approximately 180,000 BTC previously held by long-term holders have shifted, de-risking into the hands of significant ETF buyers.
Like a Moth to a Flame#Bitcoin speculators are pouring into leveraged futures positions in the lead up to the US election.
At the same time, ~180k $BTC held by Long-Term Holders have de-risked into heavy ETF buyers.
My latest piece is live for @_checkonchain subscribers 👇 pic.twitter.com/2DO2PObLMh
— _Checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️ (@_Checkmatey_) November 2, 2024
This trend indicates a cautious but active repositioning among seasoned investors, balancing speculative and long-term strategies in the lead-up to the election. For the first time in the last eight trading sessions, the total inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs turned negative as victory chances for Donald Trump dropped further. The BlackRock Bitcoin ETF IBIT has been dominating the inflows over the past two weeks, with total inflows crossing $26 billion in a significant milestone.
The Ethereum price took a dive under $2,500 with top traders like Peter Brandt predicting further crash. However, if the bulls support the levels of $2,480, we could witness a rebound from here. As of press time, the ETH price is trading at $2,509 with a market cap of $302 billion.
The TD Sequential just flashed a buy signal on the #Ethereum 4-hour chart, hinting at a potential rebound! For this bullish setup to hold, $ETH needs to stay above the $2,480 support. pic.twitter.com/EzDpkmcUl1
— Ali (@ali_charts) November 1, 2024
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