How Close Are The Bitcoin ETFs To Surpassing Satoshi Nakamoto?
Highlights
- Leading analyst Eric Balchunas predicts Bitcoin ETFs will reach massive total assets..
- Bitcoin ETFs rapidly accumulate Bitcoin, nearing the estimated holdings of Satoshi Nakamoto, with projections of surpassing them by mid-December.
- BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF dominates inflows, with a record-breaking $1.1 billion in a single day.
Leading ETF analyst Eric Balchunas estimates that Bitcoin ETFs will surpass $90 billion in total assets and beat stashes of Bitcoin‘s pseudonymous creator Satoshi Nakamoto by mid-December. Meanwhile, traded Bitcoin products stand only 28% away from outshining the total holdings of gold ETFs.
According to a report by Balchunas on Monday, ETFs saw inflows of $1 billion and $5 billion in market appreciation – in under a year since the first was launched.
Bitcoin ETFs Surpass $1 Billion in Daily Inflows
The US-listed Bitcoin ETFs are on course to dethrone Satoshi Nakamoto as the largest holder of Bitcoin. Those funds have amassed about 1.04 million BTC, or about 95%, of Nakamoto’s estimated 1.1 million BTC stash, according to Shaun Edmondson data confirmed by Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, who says US ETFs will pass Nakamoto around Thanksgiving.
ETFs now 95% of the way to passing Satoshi as largest holder. Countdown clock in effect. Thanksgiving feels like a good over/under date. https://t.co/XzTugf2vXV
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) November 12, 2024
According to other Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart, official flow numbers for US spot ETFs reached $1.1 billion yesterday. This marks the second-largest flow day for the group since its launch, with only November 7th’s $1.4 billion inflow surpassing it.
Official flow numbers for the US spot #Bitcoin ETFs yesterday were $1.1 billion.
Second biggest flow day for the group since launch. Only November 7th's $1.4 billion inflow day was larger pic.twitter.com/KV0HbkyzX6
— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) November 12, 2024
On November 12, spot Bitcoin ETF inflows reached $1.1 billion. BlackRock’s IBIT dominated with inflows of $756 million, while Fidelity’s FBTC garnered inflows of $135 million.
A day later, BlackRock’s IBIT crossed the $1 billion in trading volume mark in just 25 minutes, while it surged to top actively trading status ahead of popular ETFs like Invesco QQQ and SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust.
Accumulation of $3.4B in Four Days Post-Election
By the end of October, US Bitcoin funds were collectively holding 983,334 BTC, which indicates that they had acquired over 56,000 BTC during the past two weeks. However, in November, ahead of the US elections, Bitcoin ETFs see $541M in outflows, marking the second largest in history.
Still, the accumulation has accelerated since Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election. According to data provided by Farside Investors, US spot BTC ETFs have seen an unprecedented $3.4 billion inflow in just four days since Election Day.
This was the group’s best performance last Thursday when investors poured around $1.3 billion into ETFs. BlackRock’s IBIT itself accounted for a record-breaking $1.1 billion that day amid high trading volumes.
According to Balchunas, spot ETFs rapidly gather Bitcoin at around 17,000 BTC weekly. If this pace continues, those funds would be on track to eclipse Satoshi’s estimated Bitcoin holdings by December 2024.
Edmondson’s top Bitcoin holders list includes some of the biggest Bitcoin-holding companies, including MicroStrategy. In a declaration, the company announced that it had added 27,200 BTC to its portfolio. With this addition, the number of BTC in possession goes to 279,420, valued at approximately $23 billion.
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