Is a Bitcoin Bull Run Possible in 2026? Here’s Why Arthur Hayes Thinks Yes

BitMex co-founder Arthur Hayes believes that a Bitcoin bull run would happen in 2026 due to renewed liquidity provided by the Federal Reserve in the form of balance-sheet expansion. This move would cause increased interest in risk assets like cryptocurrencies and equities.

Arthur Hayes Hints at Potential Bitcoin Bull Run in 2026

In a recent X post, the BitMex founder highlighted that the BTC price could be set for a rally this year thanks to improving macroeconomic factors. He cited a Bloomberg report where it was reported that the yen jumped to its highest since August.

“Very bullish if true for BTC. This assumes Fed prints dollar, creates banking reserves. dollars are then sold to buy yen,” he said. If the Fed is manipulating the yen, we will see its b/s grow via the Foreign currency denominated assets line item which comes out weekly in the H.4.1 release,” Hayes said.

He drew attention to reports that the New York Fed conducted dollar-to-yen checks to support the Japanese currency. It must be added that no intervention has been made by the treasury yet.

However, Hayes shared that the Bitcoin bull run would happen if this policy were implemented. It would, in turn, have a direct effect on the crypto market.

This occurred just after the BOJ kept its interest rates unchanged last Friday following rumors of a hike in interest rates. The event has kept markets stable following previous concerns of a possible crash in the market.

According to Bloomberg, the Japanese yen rose about 1.75% to reach a value of 155.63 per dollar. This is a continuation of the rise seen in Asian trading hours of the day. This is the currency’s strongest level since December.

Instead of the initial predictions of a BTC price crash to $70,000 on the movement of the yen, Hayes believes the reverse could happen if the Fed makes this move, supporting the Bitcoin bull run case.

What’s Next for BTC? Crypto Traders Place Their Bets

While the founder projected a rally, some traders are pricing in its possible next price. Polymarket data shows that more investors think the coin is going to tank to 80k before making a move up.

The Bitcoin bull run case has not been helped by the activities of institutions. Yesterday alone, the Bitcoin ETF recorded a net outflow of $104 million. This is not surprising since it is now five days straight of selling activities for this fund. In the last week alone, this fund has seen more than $1.4 billion leak out.

Source: SoSoValue

This is a significant turnaround from its past week’s performance, as its BTC funds recorded the best week since the October crash. Experts had started to forecast a rally for the coin thanks to the momentum.

Is Bitcoin Entering a Consolidation Phase?

A top market analyst Ted Pillows has cited Bitcoin selling pressure across regions. He stated on X that the U.S., Asia and Europe have been selling their Bitcoin. This pattern of regional selling suggests that the near-term Bitcoin price action represents distribution, and not new speculative demand.

In another post, Pillows indicated that Bitcoin is currently trading near important liquidity levels with massive trading activities apparent at over and below the current price levels. He noted that there is a sharp rise in liquidity between the $92,000 and $96,000 area.

This type of liquidity clustering usually indicates periods of consolidation. Price movements are determined by order-flow effects rather than fresh demand.

$BTC has big liquidity clusters to the upside.

On the downside, there are liquidity clusters around the $88,000 and $86,500 levels.

On the upside, Bitcoin has huge liquidity clusters from the $92,000-$96,000 level.

The max pain is definitely to the upside here, but a sweep of… pic.twitter.com/pA97Lupp49

— Ted (@TedPillows) January 24, 2026