Is Bitcoin Preparing for 171% Rally In Q4? Key Factors to Watch

The Bitcoin price has rallied more than 8.5% over the past week in a strong recovery to $64,000. It is clear that the crypto bulls have begun preparation that could see BTC surging by a staggering 171% during the fourth quarter.

Will Bitcoin Reach $172,800 In Q4?

Following the Fed rate cut by 50 bps this month, all eyes are on how BTC will perform going ahead in Q4 2024. After the halving event, BTC has been trading in a close re-accumulation range between $50,000-$70,000. However, the latest liquidity stimulus by the Fed could lead to a mega rally in Q4.

Popular crypto analyst Ali Martinez points out BTC’s performance during the previous halving event of 2016 and 2020. During the Q4 of 2016, the BTC price surged 61%, and more than 171% during the Q4 of 2020. Thus, if Bitcoin replicates this performance again, it can surge anywhere between $100,000 to $172,000 by the end of this year.

#Bitcoin gained +61% in Q4 of 2016 and +171% in 2020. Interestingly, 2024's price action so far mirrors both years—could history be repeating itself? pic.twitter.com/M6KxT0unE0

— Ali (@ali_charts) September 23, 2024

Bitcoin on-chain metrics have already shown improvements in recent weeks with big players like MicroStrategy continuing to buy the BTC dips. Two days before, MicroStrategy purchased $450 million of BTC showing major confidence in its future performance.

Key Factors Influencing BTC Price

The latest 10X Research report noted that the market structure has been showing improvement with the surge in the stablecoin minting as well as rising futures leverage. citing the previous halving cycles, the report stated that the likelihood of BTC price breakout has increased as we head into the fourth quarter. However, for that to happen, Bitcoin must cross $65,000 on the upside. As of press time, the BTC price is trading 0.96% up at $63,549 with a market cap of $1.255 trillion.

On the other hand, bankrupt crypto exchange FTX is preparing to distribute $16 billion to creditors. Many market analysts believe that this liquidity would come back to Bitcoin and crypto leading to some fireworks in the crypto space.

With BTC on the rise, market analysts believe that the Altseason is just weeks away. Ethereum has already been showing strength with the ETH price gaining 16% over the past week. However, with Ethereum whale deposits on the rise, analysts stay confused as to where is ETH heading next.

On the other hand, the Bitcoin ETFs have picked up momentum again. During the last week, the BTC ETFs saw $397 million of inflows with Fidelity ETF FBTC leading the pack.