Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis as OTC Balance Drops by $40.8B

Akash Girimath
May 27, 2025 Updated July 17, 2025
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Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis as OTC Balance Drops by $40.8B

Highlights

  • Bitcoin's OTC balance has dropped by 371K, valued at nearly $40.8B, indicating a significant decrease in supply.
  • The long-term outlook for Bitcoin remains bullish, but the short-term bias is bearish with potential drop to $106K or lower.
  • Bitcoin's price trend remains uncertain, with key support levels at $106.7K and $102.4K-$100K.

The big-picture outlook for Bitcoin (BTC) price remains strong, as it trades above $110,000 today. A bullish data point that paints this optimistic outlook is the significant drop in over-the-counter BTC balances over the years. To be precise, the OTC balance has decreased by 371K, valued at nearly $40.8B at press time.

According to data from CryptoQuant, the OTC balance has dropped from 486K to 115K, showing a 4.2-fold decrease since September 2021. Axel Adler Jr., who pointed out this decline, added,

“At the current withdrawal rate of about 276 BTC per day, the remaining 115K BTC would be depleted by July 2026.”

A decline in the supply is net bullish for the ecosystem in the long-term outlook. However, the short-term bias remains bearish, with the Bitcoin price poised to drop to $106K or lower.

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Bitcoin Price Analysis: What’s Next as OTC Balance Drops $40.8B?

Bitcoin (BTC) rose 1.16% in Tuesday’s early New York trading session, indicating buyers’ intention. However, this attempt to push BTC above $110.4K failed amid rising selling pressure, resulting in a 2% drop to $108,609.

On the one-hour chart, Bitcoin’s price action since the start of May has produced higher highs and higher lows, signaling a bull trend. However, since the May 22 ATH at $111,959.3, BTC has shown weakness, creating two lower highs. Hence, the short-term outlook remains uncertain at the moment as long as the $106.7K level holds.

Theoretically, a Bitcoin price breakdown below $106.7K on the hourly chart would confirm the start of a bearish market regime. In such a case, investors can expect a BTC Crash to the next key zone that extends from $105.8K to $102.4K. Investors looking to short Bitcoin (BTC) futures or buy the dip can set alerts at the aforementioned zone.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis as OTC Balance Drops by $40.8B
BTC/USDT 1-hour Chart

While the short-term outlook remains bearish, investors need to note that the long-term trend is still bullish. So long as the $102.4K or $100K psychological level holds, this bullish trend remains intact.

For a detailed and long-term price prediction for Bitcoin 2030-2050: Check This

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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

1. What is Bitcoin's current price?

Bitcoin trades above $110,000, currently at $108,609.

2. What does the decline in OTC balance indicate?

The decline in OTC balance indicates a decrease in supply, which is net bullish for the ecosystem in the long-term outlook.

3. What is the short-term outlook for Bitcoin?

The short-term outlook remains bearish, with potential drop to $106K or lower if key support levels are breached.
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Investment disclaimer: The content reflects the author’s personal views and current market conditions. Please conduct your own research before investing in cryptocurrencies, as neither the author nor the publication is responsible for any financial losses.
Ad Disclosure: This site may feature sponsored content and affiliate links. All advertisements are clearly labeled, and ad partners have no influence over our editorial content.

Why Trust CoinGape

CoinGape has covered the cryptocurrency industry since 2017, aiming to provide informative insights Read more…to our readers. Our journal analysts bring years of experience in market analysis and blockchain technology to ensure factual accuracy and balanced reporting. By following our Editorial Policy, our writers verify every source, fact-check each story, rely on reputable sources, and attribute quotes and media correctly. We also follow a rigorous Review Methodology when evaluating exchanges and tools. From emerging blockchain projects and coin launches to industry events and technical developments, we cover all facets of the digital asset space with unwavering commitment to timely, relevant information.

About Author
About Author
Senior Cryptocurrency Analyst & Market Strategist Engineer-turned-analyst Akash Girimath delivers data-driven insights on cryptocurrency markets, DeFi, and blockchain technology for platforms like AMBCrypto and FXStreet. Specializing in technical analysis, on-chain analytics, and risk management, he empowers institutional investors and retail traders to navigate market volatility and regulatory shifts. A hands-on strategist, Akash merges active crypto portfolio management with research on Web3, NFTs, and tokenomics. At AMBCrypto, he led cross-functional teams to redesign content frameworks, achieving record-breaking traffic growth through scalable editorial strategies. His analyses dissect market sentiment, investment strategies, and price predictions, blending macroeconomic trends with real-world trading expertise. Known for mentoring analysts and optimizing workflows for high-impact reporting, Akash’s work is cited across global crypto publications, reaching 500k+ monthly readers. Follow his insights on YouTube, X, and LinkedIn for cutting-edge perspectives on decentralized ecosystems and crypto innovation.
Investment disclaimer: The content reflects the author’s personal views and current market conditions. Please conduct your own research before investing in cryptocurrencies, as neither the author nor the publication is responsible for any financial losses.
Ad Disclosure: This site may feature sponsored content and affiliate links. All advertisements are clearly labeled, and ad partners have no influence over our editorial content.