Bitcoin Price Analysis: Whale Transactions Down 30% as BTC Approaches $100K

Bitcoin’s price rally stalled at $91,500 on Wednesday as bulls struggled to push the uptrend further. On-chain data shows that whale investors remain hesitant, with large transactions declining amid uncertainty over U.S. trade policy. Despite bullish sentiment, institutions appear to be waiting for further confirmation before making aggressive entries.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Fails $92,000 Breakout Test as US Trade Policy Hangs in Limbo

Bitcoin (BTC) recorded substantial gains earlier in the week, but its momentum faded as resistance near $92,000 proved difficult to breach. Although former U.S. President Donald Trump hinted at a possible rollback of tariffs, traders have remained cautious, awaiting further policy clarity before committing to larger positions.

The recent BTC price action supports this cautious stance. BTC surged 10% from a weekly low of $81,480 on Tuesday, reaching $91,860 before encountering strong resistance. This rejection suggests that market participants are reluctant to push higher without confirmation of a favorable regulatory environment or clearer institutional buying trends.

Whale Transactions Down 30% as Institutions Await Upside Confirmation

While overall market sentiment leans bullish, large investors have taken a wait-and-see approach, contributing to the price stagnation. A key factor behind this cautious stance is the uncertainty surrounding the U.S. Treasury’s official acquisition of Bitcoin and other strategic reserve assets.

On-chain data from Santiment reveals a notable drop in whale transactions. The number of Bitcoin transactions exceeding $1 million in value provides insights into institutional buying trends.

On February 25, the total number of whale transactions was recorded at 3,851.

However, as of March 5, that figure has plummeted to 2,517—a sharp 30% decline. This significant drop in large-volume transactions suggests that institutional investors are refraining from aggressive accumulation until they receive more clarity on market conditions.

The declining whale activity provides a key reason why Bitcoin has struggled to break past the $92,000 resistance level. Despite an overall uptrend in BTC’s price, the lack of sustained institutional demand has kept upside momentum in check.

Traders and long-term investors appear to be waiting for either a strong breakout signal or a major macroeconomic catalyst before committing larger capital.

How This Could Impact Bitcoin’s Future Price Trajectory

If whale transactions remain subdued, Bitcoin’s rally may continue to face resistance at the $92,000 mark, potentially leading to a period of price consolidation between $85,000 and $92,000. However, should institutional confidence return—especially with an official U.S. Treasury confirmation of BTC acquisitions—Bitcoin could quickly surge past $100,000.

A sustained decrease in whale transactions could also signal a cooling-off period for Bitcoin, which might prompt short-term traders to take profits. However, if institutions re-enter the market with renewed buying activity, it could set the stage for a fresh rally toward six-figure price levels.

Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC Stalls Below $92K, Eyeing a Breakout or Correction?

Bitcoin price forecast indicators remains in a cautious uptrend, hovering around $91,937 after failing to clear the key resistance at $92,000. The daily chart reflects a mixed outlook, with technical indicators signaling both bullish momentum and potential downside risks.

Bollinger Bands show BTC trading near the midline at $91,950, with the upper band extending to $101,689.87.

This suggests room for upside movement if buyers reclaim dominance. However, failure to break above the midline resistance could see BTC revisiting lower support near $82,210.35. The recent Piercing Line candlestick pattern hints at a potential reversal, but confirmation through increased volume is necessary.

The MACD indicator remains in bearish territory, with the signal line at -2,291.62 and MACD histogram at -2,539.04. However, the histogram shows contracting negative momentum, hinting at a possible bullish crossover.

If BTC maintains momentum, a breakout above $92,000 could see a rally toward $100,000. Conversely, a rejection at current levels may trigger a retest of the recent lows near $82,000.

A decisive move above $92,000 with strong volume could confirm a breakout, while failure to sustain current levels may lead to a deeper correction before the next leg higher.