Bitcoin Price Analysis: When to Expect the Post-Halving Rally?

Bitcoin Price Analysis: On April 19th, Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency market cap completed a major milestone called ‘halving’ — a phenomenon where the reward for mining Bitcoin transactions is cut in half. This reduction from 6.25 to 3.125 bitcoins per block in this fourth aims to control inflation and mimic the scarcity-driven value increase similar to precious metals. Historically, halvings have preceded substantial rallies in Bitcoin’s price, as reduced supply and ongoing demand may push prices higher. What to expect after the Fourth Halving?

Also Read: Bitcoin Price Upper Limit Set At $4.5M For 4th Halving Cycle

Bitcoin Post-Halving Analysis: Awaiting the Next Major Rally

The Bitcoin price currently trades at $64531 showcasing an intraday loss of 0.73%. Despite the fourth Halving completion on April 19th, the BTC price has traded relatively stable, bolstering the current consolidation for the majority of major coins.

While the neutral candle formation in the daily chart shows a lack of initiation from buyers or sellers, such behaviors are common before the post-halving rally begins.

Historical analysis reveals that significant Bitcoin rallies typically commence sometime after halving events. The first Bitcoin halving took place on November 28, 2012, yet the sustainable rally didn’t begin until about 40 days later, in early January 2013. 

The second halving occurred on July 9, 2016, but it took roughly 60 days for the market to manifest a recovery, marked by the formation of an initial higher high in the second week of September 2016. Similarly, the third halving, which occurred on May 11, 2020, was followed by a price recovery about 70 days later, in late July 2020.

If the pattern holds true, the Bitcoin price may need 2-3 months to stabilize before initiating the post-halving rally.

Also Read: Bitcoin Halving 2024 : 5 Myths, Facts, and the Path Forward Revealed

Historical Insights: Bitcoin’s Cyclical Surge Post-Halving

According to on-chain data provider Spot On Chain, Bitcoin historically doesn’t experience immediate price spikes post-halving. Instead, new all-time highs have tended to occur 6 to 12 months after the event. The first event in November 2012 saw Bitcoin’s price rise from $12 to over $1,000 by late 2023. 

🎉🎉 Happy #Bitcoin Halving Day!!

Historical data suggests that price hikes don't occur immediately (there may even be a correction), but a new ATH tends to be seen around 6 to 12 months after the halving event.

1st Halving (Nov 2012):
Price was around $12, which rose to over… pic.twitter.com/3bP2eHxL8B

— Spot On Chain (@spotonchain) April 20, 2024

In July 2016’s second halving, the price climbed from around $650 to almost $20,000 by Dec 2017. The third halving in May 2020 preceded a surge to a $69,000 ATH by November 2021. This cyclical trend suggests potential for upward movement post-halving and a possible time period for new tops in BTC price.

Technical Indicator 

• Exponential Moving Average: The BTC price above 100-and-200-day EMA indicates the broader trend remains bullish.
• Moving Average Convergence Divergence: A MACD and signal in a bullish crossover state highlights the recovery sentiment returning to this asset.