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Highlights
- Bitcoin's price is consolidating around $105,000, with a make-or-break support level at $103,000 that could determine its next move.
- A hold above $103,000 could trigger a bull rally to $120,000, while a failure to hold could lead to a correction.
- Institutional demand remains strong, with $5.23 billion in spot Bitcoin ETF inflows in May and Logtech's $1.5 billion BTC purchase plan.
As Bitcoin consolidates around $105,000, investors are closely watching a make-or-break support level that could determine whether BTC price resumes its bull run or faces a deeper correction. Despite the recent correction and a failed attempt at recovery, if Bitcoin (BTC) maintains this key technical support, it could trigger a bull rally to $120K.
Bitcoin Price Analysis
At press time, Bitcoin price is rejecting after testing a critical Fair Value Gap (FVG) between $106,266 and $106,723 after bouncing 2.50% from the Point of Control (POC) at $103,897. This POC is the highest traded volume level for the $104,845 to $102,468 value area. As noted in the previous CoinGape Bitcoin technical analysis, this is where 70% of the volume was traded during the 11-day consolidation in May.
The rejection from the FVG comes as the broader cryptocurrency market shows signs of exhaustion, extending May’s correction. However, BTC price holding above $103,000 remains crucial for maintaining bullish momentum.
With BTC price now testing a critical resistance zone, here are a few key levels that could decide its next move.
The Line in the Sand for Bitcoin Bulls
A look at Bitcoin’s BTCUSDT 1-hour chart on TradingView shows $106,723 as the immediate resistance level that could confirm Bitcoin’s next leg up. This level served as key support in May, defending five sell-offs. Hence, a breakdown of this level will decrease the odds of a bounce.
“This is not the time for aggressive, speculative strategies,” says Georgii Verbitskii, market analyst and Founder of TYMIO, echoing the risks associated with the breakdown of $106,723. In his message to CoinGape, Verbitskii further clarified,
“Opening long positions below the $105K level carries elevated risk and should be approached with caution.”
The sixth retest of $106,723 support triggered a breakdown to $103,000. Hence, a flip of this resistance into support with a decisive daily close above would signal strength, potentially opening the path toward:
- $109,000, a near-term resistance with key supply zones.
- $110,000, a psychological barrier since it was the previous ATH.
- $120,000, a level that many investors and analysts expect to be the next major target or all-time high (ATH).
On the flip side, a failure to hold above $103,000 could trigger a pullback into the value area between $104,845 and $102,468, invalidating the bullish thesis.
Support Levels to Watch Amid Crypto Market Uncertainty
As noted above, Bitcoin’s bullish price structure remains intact as long as $103,000 holds. Below this, the first crypto could experience a correction to key levels traders are eyeing:
- $102,020 – Poor lows formed on May 19. This liquidity sweep could flush leveraged positions and has the potential to become a strong support.
- $101,238 – The May 12 buy tail that sparked a 4% rally to $104K. A subsequent retest of the buy tail on May 15 led to a 10.45% surge to $112,000, an all-time high.
- $100,000 – A psychological and institutional accumulation zone
“A consolidation between $103K–$108K is more likely in the near term, as $100K support holds firm,” BitGet’s Research Analyst Ryan Lee said to CoinGape in a message. “A deeper correction to $97K–$93K could occur if $103K breaks, per Fibonacci levels.”
To conclude, the short-term technical analysis notes that a hold above the $103,000 support level is critical for Bitcoin price to spark a rally to $120,000.
Fundamental Tailwinds Supporting the Bull Case
While technicals waver, institutions aren’t paying attention to short-term noise. May’s $5.23B spot Bitcoin ETF inflows, Logtech’s $1.5B BTC purchase plan suggest strong demand under $110K. Additionally, Norway’s NBX recently became the first publicly traded Bitcoin treasury firm, further validating BTC as a reserve asset.
Long-Term Outlook: Holding $100K Keeps Bulls in Control
As long as Bitcoin defends $103,000 or holds above the $100,000 psychological level, the theoretical outlook for price remains bullish. A successful breakout above $106,723 could accelerate the bullish momentum and propel BTC toward a new ATH, potentially $120,000. On the contrary, a deeper retest of $101K to $100K may offer a high-conviction buying opportunity before the next upward wave.
Georgii Verbitskii, Bitcoin appears to be entering a low-momentum phase, with sharp moves in either direction looking increasingly unlikely. Two scenarios seem most probable: either a period of sideways consolidation—possibly lasting through most of June—followed by a renewed uptrend, or a slow, corrective climb upward with occasional pullbacks.
For a long-term price prediction of Bitcoin between 2025 and 2030: Read This
Regardless, the coming days are pivotal in determining whether Bitcoin bulls defend the key level and spark another historic rally or fail, catalyzing a deeper correction phase.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
1. What is the key support level for Bitcoin?
2. What could trigger a bull rally in Bitcoin?
3. What are the potential targets for Bitcoin's next move?
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