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Highlights
- Bitcoin price may be on the verge of a strong bullish breakout in August.
- The spread of the Bollinger Bands has thinned, pointing to a rebound.
- BTC price has also formed a bullish pennant pattern on the daily chart.
Bitcoin price continues to move sideways today, July 31, as the recent momentum fades. BTC was trading at $118,000, capping a solid month in which it surged to a record high of $123,200. Bollinger Bands and a forming bullish pennant pattern point to an eventual rebound ahead of the August 1 tariff deadline.
Bollinger Bands and Bullish Pennant Point to a Bitcoin Price Surge
Technical analysis suggests that the ongoing Bitcoin price consolidation could be the calm before the storm. Bollinger Bands, an indicator created by finding the moving average and its positive and negative standard deviations, point to a strong comeback.
The spread of the three lines has continued to narrow in the past few days, a sign that its volatility has dried up. This view is supported by the Average True Range (ATR), which has dropped in the past few days. The ATR is another common volatility indicator in technical analysis.
Narrowing Bollinger Bands often lead to a squeeze in either direction. There are signs that the breakout direction will be bullish. For one, the coin has formed a bullish pennant pattern, which comprises of a vertical line and a consolidation in the form of a symmetrical triangle.
The two lines of this triangle pattern are now nearing their confluence, which may trigger a short squeeze in the coming days. If this squeeze happens, the initial BTC price forecast will be the all-time high of $123,200. A break above that target will be the psychological point at $125,000.
It is also possible that the Bitcoin price will have a bigger breakout than that. For one, the pennant has a flagpole whose length is 20%. Measuring the same distance from its potential breakout brings the target price to $144,000.
On the flip side, a drop below the key support at $112,000, the highest level in May will invalidate the bullish forecast.
Trump Trade Tariff Deadline and Deals
A potential bullish catalyst for the Bitcoin price surge will be the upcoming trade deadline by Donald Trump. He has threatened that the US would apply tarrifs ranging between 15% and 50% to some countries.
On the positive side, there are signs that the the US has reached or is about to reach agreements with some of the biggest trading partners. The US reached a deal with the EU earlier this week and with Japan a week before that.
In a statement on Thursday, Trump said that the US would give Mexico a 30-day extension, which is a positive thing. He also announced deals with South Korea, Thailand, and Cambodia.
Most importantly, there are signs that the US is about to make an agreement with China, one of its biggest trading partners. While all these deals have substantial tariffs starting at 15%, there is a likelihood that they will lead to stability in the financial market.
Most importantly, the tariffs means that the risk that the US will have higher inflation for longer will be low. This, in turn, will push the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates as soon as in the September meeting. The Fed left interest rates unchanged on Thursday, with some officials preferring a cut.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
1. What is the most likely Bitcoin price forecast?
2. What is the most likely catalyst for the BTC price?
3. How high can Bitcoin get when it breaks out?
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