Bitcoin Price Prediction as Gaussian Channel Turns Green Amid U.S.–China Trade Progress and Fed Rate Cut Hopes

Bitcoin price has climbed above $111K as analysts highlight the recent Gaussian channel flip, marking a rare green signal seen only during historic rallies. The indicator’s shift, last triggered in 2017 and 2021, preceded massive surges and long-term peaks. Meanwhile, smart money continues accumulating, with several whales increasing exposure amid growing optimism around the macro backdrop.

Bitcoin Price Action and Bull Market Retest Patterns

Bitcoin price recently mirrored its 2017 and 2021 structures, with the Gaussian channel flipping green to signal renewed bullish strength. According to Merlijn The Trader, this indicator historically triggers major parabolic phases, followed by retests before each cycle’s peak. 

He emphasized that similar flips in 2017 and 2021 preceded explosive rallies, marking ideal accumulation zones. Meanwhile, the indicator’s green shift confirms a transition toward long-term growth, fueling renewed confidence among institutional holders. 

Therefore, the long-term Bitcoin price prediction continues to lean upward, reflecting both historical context and technical resilience.

Merlijn also highlighted that BTC price has retested its bull market baseline, the 50-week Simple Moving Average, which has consistently marked every bullish continuation zone since 2023. He explained that this line has acted as the defining “golden support,” underpinning all major liftoffs in the ongoing cycle. 

Notably, each retest of this level has attracted institutional inflows, often preceding multi-month expansions as liquidity returns to spot markets. According to the analyst, this pattern confirms that smart money tends to accumulate during these quiet technical retests, while retail investors only react once breakouts materialize. 

This latest retest, therefore, reinforces the ongoing accumulation phase, highlighting the maturity and structural strength of Bitcoin’s uptrend.

U.S.–China Talks and Fed Bets Strengthen Market Confidence

Progress in U.S.–China trade relations has eased global uncertainty following months of tariff tension. President Trump’s softened stance toward China, along with assurances that “it will all be fine,” boosted investor confidence ahead of his upcoming meeting with President Xi Jinping. 

Meanwhile, a high-profile insider whale reportedly opened $255 million in long Bitcoin and Ethereum positions before the summit, signaling faith in improving relations. 

Specifically, this move aligns with optimism that easing trade strain could unlock broader risk-taking across financial markets. Additionally, the Federal Reserve’s 95% priced-in rate cut for late October has amplified global liquidity expectations. 

Historically, such dovish monetary environments have driven capital into crypto assets, and BTC price appears to be responding in kind. Therefore, both geopolitical and monetary factors continue to reinforce Bitcoin’s bullish foundation heading into 2025.

What’s Next?

Bitcoin’s technical and macro confluence signals growing conviction across markets. The Gaussian flip, bull market retest, and improving U.S.–China dynamics strengthen the bullish case. If history repeats, this alignment could precede another parabolic phase. Therefore, conviction-driven investors may view this moment as strategically significant for long-term positioning.