Bitcoin Price Prediction: Why BTC May Crash To $54,000

Bitcoin (BTC) price prediction showed a continued correction following the release of US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Wednesday. A 4% retreat put the largest cryptocurrency at $58,730 ahead of the American session. Altcoin majors Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), and Ripple (XRP) dropped 4%, 3.1%, and 1.6%, respectively, underscoring headwinds in the market.

Bitcoin May Slide To $54,000 As OI Plunges

Bitcoin price rallied above $61,000 and edged closer to $62,000 resistance before the release of the CPI data. According to the Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS), inflation cooled to 2.9% annually, with the Core CPI steadying at 3.2%.

Based on this data, economists expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by at least 25 basis points in September, a move that could ease pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin.

However, the optimism for a rate cut did not prevent BTC price from sell-side pressure, as a drop below $60,000 momentarily followed the report. The Bitcoin price prediction hindsight revealed that the CPI report is often associated with intense volatility, implying another drop to $54,000 could be brewing before giving way to a bigger leg up.

The CME BTC futures open interest (OI) data on Coinglass highlighted a 5% decline to $8.36 billion, signaling a potential price drop. Traders lack market reversal conviction with only a few willing to keep positions open. A previous BTC price forecast found that the largest digital asset tends to drop with reducing CME futures OI.

Bitcoin price holds above a crucial IntoTheBlock IOMAP model support between $54,955 and $56,695. About 874.5k addresses purchased 585.78k BTC in this range, making up the demand that could advance BTC toward $70,000.

However, the most important region runs between $63,728 and $65,468, where 1.61 million addresses bought 944.51k BTC.

A breach of this region is required to invalidate the bearish thesis, giving bulls free rein to cultivate the next rally to ATH and higher. Bitcoin price prediction shows that BTC risk stalling between $58,000 and $64,000 if this supply zone holds.

Bitcoin Price Prediction: Downside Risks Hold BTC Back

Bitcoin price quickly reclaimed $58,000 support but struggled to sustain the uptrend, which was eyeing $60,000. The RSI retreat in the neutral region targets the oversold area below 30, which may escalate the forecasted decline to $54,000.

Based on the daily chart, short-term support at $57,000 will determine whether Bitcoin price renews the uptrend immediately above $60,000 or drops to $54,000 first before reversing the trend. Nevertheless, if bulls manage to reclaim the 200-day EMA resistance at $59,454 as support, downside risks may shrink drastically, boosting the chances of a reversal above $60,00.