Bitcoin Price Forecast: Can BTC Reach $100K After the Upcoming US Fed Decision?

Bitcoin’s price briefly crossed the $85,000 mark on Sunday, March 16, marking an 11% rebound from last week’s bottom of $76,000. Bullish traders have been deploying significant leverage positions on BTC ahead of the upcoming US Federal Reserve rate decision slated for March 19.

Bitcoin (BTC) Attempts $85,000 Recovery as Sellers Continue to Hold

After reaching an all-time high of $109,071 in January, Trump’s inauguration ushered in a pullback phase witch Bitcoin (BTC) experiencing a sharp decline of nearly 30%, hitting a low of $76,000 last week.

This downturn has been attributed to various factors, including geopolitical tensions following President Trump’s intervention in early March and recent US trade tariff announcements.

However, positive indicators from the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) reports published last week have spurred a recovery. On March 16, BTC price briefly crossed the $85,000 mark, reflecting an 11.1% gain from the previous week’s low of $76,000 recorded on Tuesday, March 12.

This suggests that investor sentiment has improved significantly since the CPI data release on Wednesday, March 13, with many opting to hold their positions in anticipation of upcoming macroeconomic announcements.

What Fed Rate Outcomes Could Drive BTC to $100K?

The upcoming Federal Reserve decision on interest rates is a critical event for Bitcoin investors.

Historically, lower interest rates have led to increased liquidity in financial markets, often benefiting risk assets ranging from stocks to cryptocurrencies.

The next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision expected by Wednesday, March 19.

If the Fed signals a rate pause or hints at imminent cuts, it could boost investor confidence, potentially driving Bitcoin’s price toward the $100,000 mark.

Conversely, a hawkish stance with rate hikes could tighten liquidity, posing challenges for Bitcoin’s upward momentum.

However, based on recent data from CME Group, a majority of market watchers have priced in a 99% chance of a rate pause.

If this scenario plays out as expected, BTC price could see some upside in the aftermath of the official rate announcement, as often historically seen after less hawkish Fed decisions.

Bulls Established $1.9 Billion Dominance in Bitcoin Derivative Market

Having digested inflation-easing signals in the US CPI and PPI reports, with market watchers nearly ruling out the chances of a rate cut as previously feared, the majority of Bitcoin traders have priced in the rate pause decision and positioned trades accordingly.

In the derivatives market, bullish sentiment is evident. Over the last 7 days, bull traders have mounted long leverage positions amounting to $4.9 billion, while short leverage positions stand at $3.8 billion, giving bulls a net dominance of $1.1 billion.

BTC Outlook for the Week Ahead

This substantial long positioning indicates strong market confidence in Bitcoin’s future appreciation. However, it’s essential to monitor these leveraged positions closely, as sudden market shifts could lead to liquidations, amplifying price movements.

Given the 11% BTC price rebound over the past week, the anticipated Fed rate pause may have already been priced in, and many traders could capitalize on the announcement to execute a sell-the-news strategy.

In this scenario, BTC could see another downturn below the $80,000 mark, especially with long traders currently holding over-leveraged positions.

Bitcoin Price Forecast: Recovery in Play, but $100K Remains a Tough Target

Bitcoin price forecast chart below is showing signs of more upside potential after rebounding 11% from the recent $76,000 low, to reach $83,175 at press time. The bullish case for BTC price action new week is supported by a number of technical indicators, but the path to $100,000 remains uncertain as key resistance levels and market sentiment present challenges.

First, the Elliott Wave count suggests Bitcoin has completed a corrective leg down, aligning with the 1.618 Fibonacci extension at $76,555.

A bounce from this level indicates potential for a relief rally, with immediate targets at the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level of $89,085, followed by $92,956 (0.5 retracement) and a stronger resistance near $96,827 at the 0.618 level.

Additionally, the Parabolic SAR indicator, currently at $97,068, further reinforces this zone as a pivotal area where bullish momentum could face major resistance.

However, bearish risks remain prominent. The volume profile shows declining buy-side momentum, suggesting a lack of strong conviction among bulls.

More so, the BBP (Bear/Bull Power) indicator remains deeply negative at -10,559, signaling that downward pressure is still in play. If Bitcoin fails to reclaim $89,000 convincingly, it could trigger another sell-off toward the $76,000 support level, potentially exposing the market to further downside.

For the week ahead, Bitcoin’s price action hinges on reclaiming $89,000. A decisive close above this level could fuel a rally toward $97,000, but failure to break above could see BTC revisiting $80,000 or lower.