Cardano Price Forecast With Chang Hard Fork Going Live

Just six hours before the Chang upgrade, the Cardano price broke below a critical support level, igniting fear and uncertainty among investors. The Chang hard fork is the main event on the Cardano network, but the hype isn’t helping the price. Meanwhile, Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson plans to launch a decentralized social media platform in Brazil following the X ban. Will ADA have a role to play in this new network? 

Chang Projects ‘Sell-The-News’ Vibes on Cardano Price

Cardano’s price has dropped by 3.4% in the last 24 hours, currently trading at $0.3358. Despite Charles Hoskinson’s efforts to drive the Chang hard fork, including burning the last of the Cardano Genesis keys, the price remains unmoved.

Cardano critics will lose one of their main arguments with the Genesis keys losing functionality. They now have to acknowledge that #Cardano is decentralized in block production and project management. #Cardano is setting the standard for the entire industry once again.

— Cardano YOD₳ (@JaromirTesar) August 30, 2024

As Cardano loses some functionality and the Chang hard fork approaches in just a few hours, it is set to become the largest fully decentralized blockchain by market cap. However, on-chain metrics suggest a different market sentiment. 

Data from Santiment indicates that the Cardano price-to-Daily Active Addresses (DAA) divergence plummeted to a two-month low on September 1, signaling a decrease in network activity. 

This drop, coupled with a steady decline in social dominance, points to waning interest in the project despite the positive news surrounding the upgrade. 

Additionally, the daily on-chain transaction volume in loss ($2.49 billion) surpassed profit ($1.98 billion) while the ADA price dropped. This signals that more investors could be selling their assets at a loss, which often happens when market sentiment turns negative and investors want to cut their losses.

However, for Cardano, it may just be a case of ‘sell-the-news’ as the Chang hard fork goes live less than six hours from now. Many investors who may have bought at higher prices anticipating a pump might now be exiting their positions.

ADA Price Could Rebound Soon

The network realized profit/loss increased in the last five days as Cardano price dropped. The increase in realized profits suggests that most ADA investors are still in profit despite the price drop. However, as observed in the daily profit ratio, the price drop could be from some investors in loss selling their assets to cut losses as the price declines.

Additionally, the Cardano social dominance has declined over the past three days. However, positive sentiment still outweighs negative, suggesting that while there may be less attention or discussion on social media, the occurring conversations are generally favorable. Despite the drop in social dominance, this sustained positive sentiment indicates a potential for a price rebound.

Cardano price is in a difficult position. With hype waning, the asset eyes at least a 4.8% drop from the current price and potentially an 8.2% further drop if market conditions prevail. In the future, more ADA utility or the general market bull run may spur price growth.