Crypto Price Prediction as S&P 500 Death Cross Looms, Polymarket Recession Odds Spike

Cryptocurrency prices retreated on Thursday, as investors panicked after Donald Trump’s tariffs. Bitcoin (BTC) price dropped to $83,450, while Ethereum (ETH) remained solidly below $2,000. The stock market crumbled, with the S&P 500 index nearing a death cross, while Polymarket recession odds soared to a record high. This crypto price prediction explains what to expect this year.

S&P 500 Index Nears a Death Cross

American stock market plummeted after Donald Trump unveiled his tariffs, leading to heightened recession risks. As shown below, the Polymaket odds of a recession rose to 50%, the highest level since the poll started. These odds stood at 19% in January this year. In a note, a TS Lombard analyst said:

“These tariffs are not a mild stagflationary event, this is a recession-producing turn — if these tariffs stay in place.”

The blue-chip S&P 500 index futures dropped by 200 points, entering a correction since it has now dropped by over 11% from its highest level this year. The Dow Jones futures dropped by 1,200 points, while the Nasdaq 100 fell by over 800 points.

There is a risk that the S&P 500 index will drop further now that a death cross is about to happen. This pattern happens when the 50-day and 200-day moving averages cross each other, leading to further downside. In this case, the spread between the two averages has narrowed and could flip each other soon. Indeed, a death cross has already happened when using the Weighted Moving Average. 

More technicals suggest that the index may also drop further since it has moved below the key support at $5,527, invalidating the double-bottom pattern that has been forming. If this happens, the index may slip to $5,120, the lowest swing on August 5, and down by 7.40% from the current level.

Crypto Price Prediction as S&P Sinks

The S&P 500 index is a highly popular asset in the US. In most cases, its performance has an impact on crypto prices like Bitcoin and Ethereum. As such, there is a likelihood that its crash may trigger more bearish crypto price predictions. 

Bitcoin Price Technical Analysis

As the biggest coin in the industry, Bitcoin has a major impact on crypto prices. It is the engine that drives the crypto market.

On the daily chart, the BTC price has remained below the crucial support at $89,145, its lowest swing on January 14, and the neckline of the double-top pattern. The coin has also formed and retested the rising wedge pattern. 

Worse, the 200 and 50-day weighted moving averages have formed a death cross pattern, meaning that the coin will have a bearish breakdown, potentially to $76,890, its lowest level this year. A move above the resistance at $89,145 will invalidate the bearish view.

ETH Price Technical Analysis

Ethereum is another coin that impacts crypto price prediction. On the daily chart, the ETH coin has moved below the key point at $2,125, the neckline of the triple-top pattern at $4,000. It has also retested that resistance, creating a break and retest pattern that leads to more downside. 

Therefore, the most likely ETH price forecast is where it keeps falling and retests the support at $1,500. This view will be canceled if the coin rises above $2,126. 

Summary on the Cryptocurrency Price Prediction

There are rising odds that the crypto market will keep falling in the coming days as investors panic and sell their coins. They will then bounce back as the Federal Reserve intervenes by cutting rates.