Dogecoin Price Rally Odds Improve as Holders Sell 155M DOGE at Loss

The brutal correction witnessed over the past week is undone as Dogecoin (DOGE) surged to a five-day high of $0.19. This bull trend is reflected across other altcoins, causing the crypto market capitalization to add $100 billion as of June 10. Blockchain data shows that the odds of a sustained Dogecoin price rally are high as investors capitulate and sell roughly 155 million DOGE at a loss.

At press time, DOGE is up 6%, riding from the intraday low of $0.18 to form a local top at $0.19. CoinMarketCap’s data reveals a 74% spike in trading volumes to $1.24 billion within 24 hours, noting an increased trader activity.

Dogecoin Price Rally Likely as Holders Sell 155M DOGE at a Loss

The Network Realized Profit/Loss (NPL) metric from Santiment indicates that traders have sold 155 million DOGE tokens at a loss, as Dogecoin’s price collapsed by 9% on June 5, setting a daily low at $0.17. This sale is worth $29 million at the current price of $0.18.

Santiment’s NPL is a metric that calculates the average profit or loss of crypto tokens. It does so by assuming that a token is sold if it’s moved to a different wallet. During the time of transfer, if the token price is higher, NPL registers a positive spike, which refers to profit-taking. On the contrary, if the price has dropped, it assumes that the token was sold at a loss.

Large negative spikes in the NPL signals capitulation. In this case, the -155 million spike indicates that 155 million DOGE tokens were moved at a loss. Historical data shows that these instances serve as dip-buying opportunities as Dogecoin price has previously catalyzed swift reversals.

So the recent crash triggered a capitulation that has increased the odds of a Dogecoin price rally.

This negative move in the NPL could be bullish for Dogecoin price and supports the recent recovery rally. This is because it indicates that the market is approaching a local bottom as short-term holders are flushed out. This leaves strong hands willing to hold DOGE tokens for the long term.

Whales Accumulate DOGE, Highlighting Recovery Rally

Interestingly, Dogecoin whales have been steadily accumulating the top meme coin in the last two weeks, even as retail traders sell at a loss. Per Santiment, the addresses holding between 10 million and 100 million coins have increased their holdings from 23.8 billion to 24.93 billion. This means that they accumulated 1.13 billion tokens.

Combining the negative NPL and the whale accumulation reinforces the bullish outlook for Dogecoin price. As whales and long-term holders absorb the selling pressure from weak hands, the odds of an explosive rally for DOGE become more likely.

How High Could DOGE Rally?

Dogecoin’s four-hour price chart shows the token has formed an ascending parallel channel, showing a consistent surge in buying pressure and market confidence. The formation of the channel occurred after Dogecoin bounced from a high confluence zone.

The AO histogram bars are also rising in the positive zone, which signals strong buying pressure, and the RSI, with a value of 55, shows that the momentum is bullish. As long as the RSI remains above 50, DOGE price may continue to rally.

If this upward trend continues, Dogecoin price may break the channel’s upper resistance and go above $0.20. The next target will be the 227.2% Fibonacci level of $0.24, marking a 26% surge in price.

Conversely, if Dogecoin price fails to hold its price within this channel and retreats to the lower trendline, it may lose support. If this happens, it may crash by around 12% to $0.168.

For an in-depth analysis and price prediction on how Dogecoin may perform from 2025 and beyond – Read This.