Is a 40% Crash for Trump Coin Price Imminent Ahead of $500M Unlock?

Official Trump (TRUMP) is crashing ahead of President Trump’s birthday with a 4% drop today, June 13. The dip follows selling pressure towards risk assets amid a risky geopolitical climate. Meanwhile, a descending triangle pattern signals that a 40% crash could occur, with the upcoming unlock of $500M tokens set to fuel the downtrend.

At press time, Trump Coin trades at $9.97 with $555 million in daily trading volumes. Per CoinGlass data, the ongoing dip has caused $3.97 million in long liquidations, further accelerating the downward momentum.

Can Trump Coin Price Crash 40% to $5?

Trump Coin price faces a breakdown risk from a descending triangle pattern as it tests the lower boundary support. This bearish pattern shows that sellers have been gradually overpowering buyers, which is a sign of a weak bullish momentum.

The horizontal support level of $9.73 has held since late April, but TRUMP price is now testing a breakdown from it, which may kickstart a steep decline. If this support level is breached, the target price based on the triangle’s height will be $5.75, marking a 40% crash from the current price.

The volume histogram bars show that Trump Coin’s volumes have been dropping steadily within this triangle, which highlights a lack of conviction from both buyers and sellers. Meanwhile, the RSI is hovering at 37 and tipping south, which reinforces the thesis that the Trump meme coin is under a bearish momentum.

As the triangle pattern narrows, some buyers may decide to accumulate the dip, and this could aid a reversal to the upper trendline. The AO histogram bars show the likelihood of a trend reversal to bullish as they turn green, albeit remaining negative. A crossover above the zero line could be the catalyst that triggers a Trump Coin price rally to the upper trendline resistance.

$500M TRUMP Token Unlock Looms

Data from Tokenomist shows that the TRUMP meme token is facing an unlock of 50 million tokens, which are valued at nearly $500 million at the current price. These unlocks will occur on July 18, and just like most similar events, the unlocked tokens may have a bearish impact on the price.

The looming token unlocks have led to a surge in short bets towards Trump Coin as most traders speculate that the price is going to dip further.

The upcoming unlock event has also failed to translate to any gains for TRUMP price ahead of President Trump’s birthday on June 14. Usually, Trump-affiliated meme tokens surge whenever there is an event linked to the US President, but with buyers being hesitant, June 14 could pass with no meaningful gains.

Open Interest Falls to 7-Week Low

Trump Coin’s open interest has dropped to the lowest level in seven weeks. Per derivatives market data from Coinglass, this metric stands at $357 billion at press time, which is the lowest since late April.

The fall suggests a lack of interest in the TRUMP meme token, as most speculative traders have weak conviction on how Trump Coin price will perform.

Moreover, most of the newly opened positions appear to be from short sellers, as the funding rate heatmap shows that the funding rate has fallen to -22%. This metric shows that shorts are heavily dominant, as most traders anticipate a price decline.

In conclusion, the price of Trump Coin is under intense bearish pressure as a descending triangle pattern hints that it could plunge by 40% to $5.75. The upcoming unlock of $500M tokens has caused hesitance from buyers as demand dries up.

As bearish headwinds rock the meme coin’s short-term outlook, a long-term Trump Coin price prediction shows recovery between 2025 and 2030.