Pendle Price Breaks Below $2? Arthur Hayes Flee Signals Bigger Drop Ahead

The cryptocurrency market retains its bullish outlook for the second half of September as Bitcoin rigorously attempts to reclaim $60,000. Along with most major altcoins, the Pendle price showcased a notable uptick during Monday’s trading session to hit a 50-day high of $3.68. However, this recovery is at risk amid bear pattern formation and selling pressure from large holders.

Pendle Price Risks $2 Breakdown as Arthur Hayes Flee Signals Trouble

Arthur Hayes, the founder of BitMEX and prominent crypto trader, sold 350,000 PENDLE tokens (worth around $1.26 million) at a loss earlier today. According to data from Lookonchain, Hayes initially purchased 392,911 PENDLE tokens for approximately $2.2 million at an average price of $5.6 through the liquidity provider Wintermute from May 20 to June 21, 2024.

However, the Pendle price plunged over 40% in the subsequent three months, prompting Arthur to exit his position at a total loss of $790k. 

Arthur Hayes(@CryptoHayes) sold 350K $PENDLE($1.26M) at a loss in the past hour.

He bought 392,911 $PENDLE($2.2M) at ~$5.6 through #Wintermute from May 20 to June 21.

3 months later, $PENDLE dropped by over 40%, prompting him to sell at a total loss of $790K (-36%).… pic.twitter.com/muuiX67m9M

— Lookonchain (@lookonchain) September 20, 2024

In addition, the Santiment analytics show a declining trend in large holders’ positions since March 2023. The chart below highlights that whale wallets between 1 Million to 10 Million Pendles have diminished their holdings to 37.05 million coins.

Typically, the exit from smart money traders signals the possibility of extended correction and negatively impacts the market sentiment.

For a detailed analysis, check our Top DeFi Protocols article.

Pendle Price Analysis Hints Temporary Rally With Bear Flag

In the last six weeks, the Pendle price showed a sustained recovery from $1.82 to $3.55— a 95.44% increase. While the upstream was backed by Fed rate cut speculation, the price consolidation within two rising trendlines revealed an inverted flag pattern. 

This chart setup displays a long ‘pole’ representing the major downtrend and two converging trendlines to indicate a temporary counter-trend move. With a market cap of $3.2 billion, the Pendle price currently trades at $3.56 and faces overhead supply at the 200-day exponential moving average.

If the pattern holds, the coin price could tumble 15.5% and break the lower support trendline at $3. A post-breakdown fall could accelerate the bearish momentum and extend a 40% downfall to $1.82 support.

On the contrary, if the Pendle price manages to reclaim the 200-day EMA and breach the converging trendline on the upside, the buyers could attempt to retest the $4.8 level.