SUI Price Eyes 20% Crash Ahead of $296M Token Unlocks

Sui price went parabolic in April as meme coins in its ecosystem soared. It more than doubled from its lowest level on April 7 and its highest swing last week. These gains may get undone soon as the network nears a giant token unlock worth $296 million on May 1.

$296M SUI Tokens to Flood Ahead of May 1 Unlock Event

The value of Sui may come under selling pressure in the next few days as the network unlocks 88.34 million tokens worth $296 million on May 1. This token unlock is part of its monthly unlock, when it releases over 50 million tokens as part of its vesting schedule.

Most of the unlocked tokens will go to Series B investors, who will receive 19.32 million of them. 14 million of these tokens will be allocated towards staked subsidies, while the remaining tokens will be distributed to early contributors and Mysten Lab Treasuries.

Sui holders will continue being diluted for many years as the circulating supply is 3.24 billion against a total supply of 10 million. As the chart below illustrates, the last Sui token unlock is scheduled to occur in May 2030.

A token unlock is a situation where new coins are brought in the market as part of the vesting schedule. It is often seen as a bearish thing since it introduces new supply in the market, which may affect price when there is no equal demand.

However, tokens don’t always drop ahead or after a unlock since the vesting schedule is usually publicly available. This means that investors have already priced in the future unlocks. For example, TRUMP price jumped after a $300 million token unlock earlier this month.

Sui Price Prediction & Top Down Analysis

Sui Token Price Weekly Analysis

The weekly chart shows that the Sui token reached a high of $3.8690 this month. These gains happened last week as Bitcoin and most altcoins jumped.

There are signs that the momentum is waning as the coin has pulled back this week. It is also slowly forming an evening star candlestick pattern. A small body and upper and lower shadows characterize this pattern. Since this is a weekly chart, it will be confirmed if it ends the week around the $3.5 range.

More selling pressure, because of the token unlocks, may see the coin drop to a low of $2.3436, the highest swing in October last year. A weekly close above the high of $3.8690 will invalidate the evening star candle and point to a Sui price forecast. Such a move would signal more gains, potentially to the psychological point at $5.

Sui Coin Price 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The four-hour chart paints a more dire picture of the Sui price. That’s because it formed what looks like a double-top pattern at $3.811. It has now moved slightly below the crucial support at $3.4120.

Oscillators also show that it is losing momentum. The Relative Strength Index has moved below 50, while the Awesome Oscillator (AO) bars are about to move below the zero line. A bearish momentum is often confirmed when the RSI drops below 50, and when the AO crashes below zero.

Therefore, this chart means that the Sui coin price may drop by at least 20% in the near term to $2.7377.

Summary

Sui has become one of the top chains in the crypto industry, gaining market share in an industry like decentralized finance (DeFi). While the long-term bullish trend may remain, the value of Sui may drop further in the immediate short term.