Can Toncoin Price Hit ATH as TON Whales Speculate Pavel Durov Prison Release?

Toncoin price took a huge hit on August 24 after the arrest of Telegram creator Pavel Durov at an airport in France. TON price dropped 27% to $5 and is still struggling to rise back. As a result, Toncoin has fallen out of the top 10 rankings and is now competing for the 11th position, with Cardano price, which is eyeing $1, closely trailing behind. Meanwhile, TON whales exhibited an interesting behavior as they have been accumulating the asset in large amounts. Could they be anticipating Pavel’s release, which may be a huge catalyst for the TON price?

Pavel Durov Detainment Impact on Toncoin Price

Multiple high-profile individuals, including tech titan Elon Musk and various politicians, have attempted to secure the release of Telegram founder Pavel Durov. However, their efforts have not yet been successful, as Durov’s detention was extended by another 96 days yesterday.

In the latest attempt to free Durov, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has demanded that France release Durov as he is an Emirati citizen. 

❗️ The UAE demands that France provide its national Pavel Durov urgent access to all necessary consular services, the country's foreign ministry said in a statement.

"The UAE is closely following the case of its citizen Pavel Durov, founder of Telegram, who was arrested by the… pic.twitter.com/hHkiYLcIF3

— Sputnik (@SputnikInt) August 26, 2024

According to the Sputnik International X post, the UAE is closely following the case of its citizens and is requesting France to provide Durov with “all the necessary consular services in an urgent manner.” Further, it appears that Telegram CEO Pavel Durov has been charged with 12 criminal counts.

Ton price dropped 4.4% in the last 24 hours to trade at $5.38, but whale activity around TON suggests that large holders are preparing for Durov’s release soon.

TON Whale Activity Hints Something’s in The Water

Data from Santiment shows whales picked up a large portion of TON at the bottom when it crashed. The blue line shows whales bought $3.29M to $3.48M worth of TON, while the yellow line shows steady mega accumulation from August 20 to August 25, when these whales sold $4.07M to $3.98M worth of the asset. This shows the whales could have inside information, which is why they could be accumulating TON.

Additionally, the whale transaction spike on August 26 shows accumulation after the crash. It is the largest spike since June 2, after which the price rose 32% and hit a new all-time high. 

The TON daily active addresses (DAA) skyrocketed on August 26, along with the transaction count. This shows activity among investors and is a bullish signal for Toncoin price since high network activity means volatility will be high if or during recovery.

On August 26, both the 30-day and 365-day Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratios for Toncoin entered the oversold zone, typically indicating a buying opportunity for investors. The 365-day MVRV reached nearly -10%, a level last seen on August 5 during the broader market crash. Historically, such low MVRV levels have preceded price rebounds, as evidenced by Toncoin hitting an all-time high within 9 to 10 days after the previous occurrence.

In addition to the whale activity that day, which may signal anticipation of Pavel Durov’s release, it’s important to highlight the launch of Dogs (DOGS), another Durov project, on the Ton blockchain. This launch is one of the largest on the network since Notcoin. The DOGS airdrop attracted significant attention, leading to a surge in transactions that nearly overwhelmed the network, causing delays in processing times.

This combination of factors suggests a heightened interest in TON and its related projects, which could influence the Toncoin price trajectory in the near future.