Was BTC Price Rally to $95K Based on False Hopes? Investors Doubtful of Trump-Xi Tariff Deal

Since April 20, Bitcoin (BTC) has soared from $80k to $95k on the back of potential settlement of the tariff wars between the US & China. This move resulted in massive uptick in optimism leading to a $280 billion growth in the crypto market capitalization since then. However, as US dollar weakens and BTC price stalls, investors are growing doubtful that the there might not be an agreement between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping.

BTC Price Rally Halts at $95k Amid Doubt of Trump-Xi Jinping Tariff Deal

Although Bitcoin ETFs saw nearly $3 billion in inflows last week, traditional investors are starting to double the recent uptick in stock and crypto markets. BTC price has risen to $95k in just a week, and so have other risk assets. Charles Gasparino, a Senior Correspondent at FOX, noted that investors are growing wary of the highly anticipated deal between US President Donald Trump and China’s Xi Jinping. Gasparino added, “Big investors are growing wary about the latest market rebound over tariff-deal optimism.” The main reason behind this is doubt, “because there still is no deal even with friendly countries.” 

“If you cant get a quick deal with India, for example, or even the outlines of one as I have reported should be coming, how will the talks go with China that is far more important to the US economy?”

US dollar Weakens, Gold and Bitcoin Prices Climb

As a result of Donald Trump’s recent policies, the US stock and bond markets have been extremely volatile. Even the US dollar has weakened while BTC price has hit $95k with expectations of an even higher move. Analyst Mike Zaccardi notes that the US dollar is tied for the worst start to a year since 1962.

So, it is logical that investors doubt the Trump-Xi tariff deal. It also makes sense that gold has had one of the best-performing years so far in 2025, with the BTC price starting to rally again after months of sideways movement. Although Bitcoin behaves like a risk asset, it is also considered as ‘uncorrelated asset’ or ‘inflation hedge.’ Investors can expect BTC price to continue rally along with other hard assets. Altcoins, however, are unlikely to share this optimism and might crash.

Merk Investments founder Axel Merk noted how foreign central banks were moving away from US dollar, treasuries and into gold. 

With foreign central bank appetite for US Treasuries in retreat, what will replace the current system? I don't think anyone knows. The chart below suggests we go back to substantial central bank gold holdings. Maybe. IMHO, fragmentation and a broad erosion of trust is a likely… pic.twitter.com/GoT59qsevI

— Axel Merk (@AxelMerk) April 27, 2025

BTC Technical Analysis

BTC’s value today is up 0.62% and trades at $94,150 with a hope of pushing higher after failed attempt at a correction over the weekend.

The four-chart provides the best outlook for Bitcoin’s technical analysis. The bearish divergence noted between price and momentum indicators such as the RSI and AO still persists. This nonconformity aligns well with recent doubts among big investors of the Trump-Xi tariff deal and could be setting up the stage for disappointment and correction.

In the case of BTC price, there may be another leg up to a key reversal zone, extending from $97.1k to $98.1k. This area coincides with the three-month value area’s highest volume level and also with the supply zone formed at the peak in February 2021 that led to a 22% crash to $78k.

Hence, another push into this key area could see sharp reversal to the $88.4k to $81k value area. The highest volume traded level for this zone is at $83.7k, but BTC price may find support a bit earlier at $85.8k, which is the March month’s VWAP level.

On the other hand, if investors look to diversify from gold to Bitcoin, BTC price could rally. One could assume the nearly $3 billion in spot Bitcoin ETF inflows over the past week suggest exactly that – a shift in investor behavior toward BTC. 

In this case, BTC price prediction for 2025 notes Bitcoin could continue its ascent toward $102.5k, which is the next key resistance level. Beyond $100k, it isn’t hard for Bitcoin bulls to push to a ATH and new high.