Why This Bitcoin Price Rally Might Be Fake – Is Crash to $80K Coming Soon?

Bitcoin price has made a bold uptrend this week as it reclaims $90,000 for the first time in nearly two months. This rally has been attributed to a wide range of factors, including rising inflows to spot BTC ETFs, but one analyst has said that this pump might not last as it is simply driven by leverage. Other analysts have also attributed the gains to macro factors like the declining value of the US dollar.

Why This Bitcoin Price Rally May Be Fake 

Bitcoin price is currently approaching its highest level in two months despite growing skepticism among some analysts that this rally might reach exhaustion. Per analyst Maartunn on X, this rally was a “leverage-driven Easter pump” after Bitcoin recently added more than $2 billion in open interest within 24 hours. 

The rising open interest is also seen on Coinglass data after this metric hit $60 billion, which is the highest level in two months. Another analyst known as TXMC observed that the rapid surge in OI indicates that the ongoing BTC price rally might fade. He opined, 

“If Bitcoin ever breaks away into a bona fide decoupling from other risk assets, it won’t be fueled by over $1.5B worth of leveraged futures longs opening in a 24-hour period.” 

Besides the rising BTC’s open interest, TXMC added that this rally is also stemming from the weakening value of the US dollar. The US dollar index has plunged to its lowest level in more than three years amid the ongoing tariff war, and this is benefiting the Bitcoin price. He said,

“Bitcoin priced in dollars is about 7-8% higher than Bitcoin priced in other major currencies, relative to the Jan 20 top.”

The third reason behind the rising BTC value today is the rising inflows to spot BTC ETFs, suggesting that institutions are also buying into the ongoing rally. Data from SoSoValue shows that on April 21, inflows to these products reached $381M, marking the highest level since late January. 

Will BTC Price Crash to $80,000? 

Despite the ongoing concerns about a possible correction in Bitcoin price after the recent rally, the king coin might avoid a crash to $80,000 due to bullish technical indicators and macroeconomic conditions. 

Analyst MerlijnTrader on X shared a bullish Bitcoin price prediction on X after the coin formed a classic double bottom pattern, which often precedes significant upswings. He noted that BTC might drop to test support at the neckline of $86,900 in the near term before resuming the uptrend and possibly flip $100,000.

At the same time, trader DaanCrypto noted that Bitcoin can extend the rally if it makes a decisive daily close above the psychological price level of $90,000. However, if it fails to flip the 200-day MA and the trend reverses to cause a downtrend below the support at $85,000, it could crash to $80,000.

Meanwhile, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes noted that as the US dollar weakens, the US bond market will be in a crisis. This will also attract capital inflow to BTC and support the uptrend as investors choose to abandon the greenback for assets such as crypto and gold.

Therefore, amid these factors, it is likely that the Bitcoin price might avoid a crash to $80,000 in the near term. However, if it faces rejection at $90,000, it might drop to test the support level of $85,000 and consolidate within this range if the selling pressure eases.