Will US Election Affect XRP Price?

XRP price hints at a potential bounce, backed by spike in key metrics. But the looming US Federal Reserve interest rate cut coupled with the US presidential elections could threaten Ripple’s recovery rally. This has left investors with a single question – Will the US election affect XRP prices?

XRP Price Contemplates Recovery

On the daily time frame, XRP price shows signs of a bounce after a 20% crash since August 24. The recovery rally is supported by by technicals that suggest an incoming bounce. Furthermore, on-chain analysis adds credence by noting a lack of selling pressure. But investors must be careful as the upcoming US Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September and the US Elections are two events that could impact XRP price and the broader crypto markets.

US Election Impact on Bitcoin, Ethereum & XRP Prices

The US presidential election, set to be held on Tuesday, November 5, will play a pivotal role in setting the bias for the US financial markets as well as the cryptocurrency sector. Additionally, Bitcoin’s (BTC) correlation with the US stock market and macroeconomic policies will most definitely influence the bull run trajectory. Due to Bitcoin dominance, altcoins including Ethereum (ETH), Ripple (XRP) are easily influenced by the US elections and macroeconomic policies of the Fed.

The general consensus is that former president Donald Trump’s victory would boost the outlook for risk-on assets, including cryptocurrencies. Unlike Trump, Kamala Hariss’ party has been unclear on their stand surrounding crypto markets, Bitcoin, or XRP. Hence, the crypto market participants expect a bearish outlook should the democratic party comes to power.

According to Polymarket bettors, Trump’s odds of a win in the 2024 presidential election stands at 52%. 

This is not the first time Ripple or its founders were associated with US elections or candidates. Recently Ripple founder Chris Larsen, pledged support to Kamala Harris, which caused a brief spike in volatility.

Ripple (XRP) Price Prediction Hints Gains for Patient Holders

After the 20% crash in XRP between August 24 and September 6, the outlook seems to have stabilized. As noted in a previous article, the XRP price is showing signs of bottom formation as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Awesome Oscillator (AO) are bothing attempting to overcome the short-term spike in bearish outlook.

Considering that XRP’s third quarter price performance is better than Bitcoin or Ethereum, shows the recent interest in the remittance token.

If the present outlook continues, there is a good chance that XRP price will kickstart a recovery rally. The initial target to the upside is $0.556, which is nearly 5% away from the current level of $0.530. A spike in buying pressure that flips the $0.556 hurdle into a support floor, would indicate that the bulls are unlikely to stop. Such a development could see Ripple price attempt a 14% rally to the next critical resistance level of $0.635.

Furthermore, the Long/Short Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) indicator is hovering in the positive zone after recovering from under it. This metric uses the difference between the 365-day and 60-day MVRV to identify potential bottoms and tops. If this oscillating indicator reaches extreme negative during a bear market, it could signal a reversal and potential bottom formation. values near the bottom of a bear market and can be a strong indication of a potential trend reversal. On the other hand, a positive difference denotes that the investors that purchased the asset in the past 365 days are in profit as opposed to short-term holders who bought the asset two months ago. 

Currently, the Long/Short MVRV indicator shows a bullish outlook as the long-term holders are in profits. 

In addition to the positive outlook noted above, Santiment’s Network Realized Profit/Loss indicator showed a massive uptick on September 1. This increase shows that many XRP holders already realized profits, leading to a decrease in selling pressure, which is bullish. 

All in all, the outlook for XRP looks bullish and shows signs of recovery, but if the political landscape shifts in favor of Kamala Hariss the bullish sentiment is likely to be dampened. Such a development could see Ripple price crash 10% and revisit the $0.469 support floor.