Matrixport Predicts Market Direction as $6B Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP Options Expire Today

Traders are bracing for another crypto options expiry and US CPI inflation release today, with massive $5.1 billion in Bitcoin options to expire on the largest crypto exchange Deribit. An expert says multiple technical and structural indicators signal short-term exhaustion, despite conditions improving since the October 10 crypto market crash.

$6 Billion in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP Options Expiry

Traders are bracing for huge volatility due to crypto options expiry amid rising uncertainty. Markets became more dependent on derivatives amid massive trading volumes on CME, Deribit, and spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. Bitcoin options open interest just hit an all-time high of $50 billion on Deribit, with puts at $100K gaining traction.

More than 46K Bitcoin options with a notional value of $5.15 billion to expire on the largest derivatives crypto exchange Deribit on October 24, with a put-call ratio of 0.91. This signals more call options bets as compared to puts by derivatives traders after the leverage reset in the recent $850 billion crypto market crash.

Moreover, the max pain price was at $113,000, significantly higher than the current market price of $111,400. This implies a high chance of BTC price reclaiming above the $112K support level, with significantly higher calls than puts at the $113,000 max pain level.

Options traders are hedging downside risk as put volume surpassed call volume in the past 24 hours. The put-call ratio was 1.12.

Meanwhile, 192K Ethereum options with a notional value of almost $0.79 billion are set to expire today. The put-call ratio was bullish at 0.79.

Also, the max pain point is at $3,975, almost at the current market price. Moreover, the put open interests are higher at the $4,000 strike price, with traders opening more puts for options expiries in the coming days.

The put volume rose significantly in the last 24 hours, but is still below the call volume of 69,664. The put-call ratio is 0.92, indicating neutral sentiment among options traders.

In addition, 1,775 XRP options worth over $4.33 million in notional value are set to expire today. The put-call ratio and max pain price of 0.90 and $2.50 suggest bias towards upside, but selling pressure prevails in the crypto market due to CPI inflation data release today and the Fed rate decision next Wednesday.

BTC Price to Remain Range-Bound Despite Support: Matrixport

Matrixport said BTC price action reflects that the crypto market is shifting from a bullish to a consolidation phase. Technical and structural indicators signal short-term weariness despite macro support, Fed rate cut, and stable liquidity conditions.

Bitcoin continues to trade below the 21-week moving average for two consecutive weeks, with Bitcoin options expiry putting more pressure. This is considered a reliable boundary wall between bear and bull phases historically. Meanwhile, on-chain realized cap metrics show waning inflows. The October 10 crypto market crash underscored these weaknesses amid Trump’s renewed tariff threats against China. He expects to meet Xi Jinping next week in South Korea.

Crypto open interest decline, long-term holders realizing profits, and compressed volatility are among the factors weighing on the market. Matrixport predicts Bitcoin to remain range-bound until confidence rebuilds among traders.