Max Pain Price for Bitcoin, ETH, XRP, SOL as Wall Street Sees Hot US CPI Inflation

More than $2.3 billion in Bitcoin, ETH, XRP and SOL options to expire on Friday. Crypto market participants are bracing for options expiry and US CPI inflation data release later today. After US PCE inflation rose in line with expectations, markets await cues on how the US-Iran war impacted inflation.

Will Bitcoin, ETH, XRP, and SOL Drop to Their Max Pain Price?

Almost 27K Bitcoin options with a notional value of $1.92 billion are set to expire today on Deribit derivatives crypto exchange. The put-call ratio of 0.72 indicates bullish positioning among traders and TradFi institutions.

Call volume is also higher than put volume in the last 24 hours. The put/call ratio is 0.71, indicating buy-the-dip sentiment amid the recent Bitcoin price rebound following the US PCE inflation data.

Bitcoin max pain price is $69,000, with calls almost double the puts at the strike price. Deribit data shows the probability of expiring above the $71,500 strike price is more than 91%.

Notably, Bitcoin price has surged almost 10% this week following a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran. It successfully reclaimed above the 50-day moving average, building upside momentum. If successful, Bitcoin price could rebound towards $75,000.

ETH, XRP, and SOL Options Expiry

Meanwhile, ETH options worth $331 million in notional value will expire today, with a put-call ratio of 0.77. The ETH max pain price is at $2,050, below the current market price of $2,184.

Also, a rebound in ETH 25-delta skew signals and a slight drop in implied volatility indicate traders hedging downside protection. Buy-the-dip sentiment could increase if the upcoming macro data support further recovery.

The total ETH futures open interest decreased 0.35% to $30.23 billion in the past few hours, according to Coinglass data. Significant selling was recorded across Binance, CME, and OKX.

Moreover, XRP options worth $5.25 million in notional value is expiring today, with a bearish put-call ratio of 1.22. The max pain price is at $1.30, below the current market price of $1.34.

Options traders remain bearish on XRP, with put volume higher than call volume. However, whale accumulations and XRP treasury Evernorth buzz could cause XRP price to swing under $1.50 in the coming days.

In the Solana case, the max pain price is at $80, with traders eyeing a recovery. SOL price has jumped more than 1% in the last 24 hours, currently trading at $83.20. Trading volume remains higher ahead of crypto options expiry.

Crypto Market Braces for Hotter US CPI Inflation Data

Bitcoin price and the crypto market are steady ahead of the March US CPI inflation report release by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics today. Wall Street giants estimate a 0.9% month-over-month (MoM) rise in inflation, up from 0.3% in February. Moreover, annual inflation is expected to come in at 3.3%, above 2.4% headline CPI inflation previously.

Meanwhile, core CPI is projected at 0.27% MoM, higher than 0.22% previously. The core inflation, which excludes food and energy, is expected at 2.7%, a rise from 2.5% in February. This could cause Bitcoin price to fall, triggerng a broader crypto market crash.

The Wall Street Journal’s Nick Timiraos said “The wedge between core goods in the CPI (very mild) and PCE (very high) in February is due to the “computer software and accessories” category, per Alan Detmeister of UBS. This suggests AI buildout as opposed to tariffs could explain more of the increase.”

JPMorgan, Bank of America, Nomura, and Wells Fargo expect headline CPI inflation to come in higher at 3.4%, above economists’ forecasts of 3.3%. A higher inflation reading is likely as oil prices rebound after falling 15%.

Meanwhile, all financial services firms except Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, and Citadel Securities see Core CPI inflation to come in hot at 2.7%. CME FedWatch Tools is currently showing no Fed rate cuts this year, increasing selling pressure on Bitcoin price.

As CoinGape reported earlier, the massive surge in crude oil prices driven by the US-Iran war and supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz could push US CPI inflation from 2.43% to almost 3.4%. Polymarket shows inflation rising more than 4% in 2026.